Ukraine’s prime minister has warned that World War III will break out if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, while Britain, the United States and allies are now urging Israel not to retaliate directly against Iran after weekend attacks to avoid a wider conflict in Ukraine . middle East.

Ukrainian leaders have previously said that if the Russian problem cannot be solved in Ukraine, Ukraine will be emboldened to invade other countries, including NATO member Poland. There are also concerns that a Russian victory could encourage China to invade Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory.

Concerns are growing that the bloody war in Gaza could escalate into a full-blown regional conflict across the Middle East, as the Israeli government continues to consider retaliatory measures after Iran’s unprecedented weekend airstrikes.

Foreign governments have urged restraint to limit escalations that could lead Tehran to accelerate its nuclear weapons program.

So are we facing World War III? Here’s what experts and politicians have to say.

If Russia wins in Ukraine, will it invade other countries?

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal said that if greater action was not taken, “Ukraine will collapse… the global security system will be destroyed” and further conflict is possible.

“Ultimately, this could lead to World War III,” he told the BBC.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that if Russia wins the conflict, it may invade Poland next, triggering another global war.

British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps echoed concerns about a wider global conflict, saying the West must be “very, very clear that this is an existential issue – it’s not just about Ukraine”.

Earlier this month, Polish President Andrzej Duda also warned that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would attack other countries if he won in Ukraine.

Several countries bordering Russia, including Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

NATO’s Article 5 states that an attack on one country is considered an attack on all member states, leading to concerns that a Russian attack outside Ukraine could draw all 32 member states, including the UK and the US, into direct war .

Last year, a missile fell on Poland, killing two people and triggering NATO crisis talks. Early reports from senior U.S. intelligence officials suggested that a Russian missile had entered Poland, prompting fears of a dramatic escalation in global tensions, but later assessments suggested that the missile was launched by Ukrainian forces to intercept incoming Russian rockets.

In January, the Polish government dispatched F-16 fighter jets and a NATO aerial tanker to protect Poland’s airspace in the face of Russia’s missile attack on Ukraine.

However, Britain has repeatedly tried to avoid direct confrontation with Russia. In February this year, the British government rejected a French plan to send NATO troops to Ukraine.

Germany, Spain, Poland and the Czech Republic have also distanced themselves from any suggestion of sending ground troops to the war in Ukraine, now in its third year.

Will a Russian victory embolden China to invade Taiwan?

Concerns about a broader escalation of the war in Russia and Ukraine extend beyond Europe.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled Russian tycoon and an outspoken critic of Putin, warned last year that a Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden China to invade neighboring Taiwan.

Beijing considers the island nation part of its territory and has escalated its rhetoric around territorial control in recent years.

“A failed war in Ukraine is a stepping stone to war in the Asia-Pacific region,” Khodorkovsky said. Washington post. “You have to understand, even if a big guy gets hit in the face, some other people are going to start to wonder if the guy is really that strong and they’re going to want to sink their teeth into him. … If the United States wants to start a war in Asia, Then the most correct way is to show weakness on the Ukraine issue.”

Will the war in Gaza escalate into the wider Middle East?

On this occasion, there are warnings that the war in Gaza has escalated sharply and may engulf the entire Middle East.

Iran launched a wave of drone and missile attacks against Israel over the weekend in response to the April 1 assassination of a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general at the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

It was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel in its long proxy war.

Israel vows to retaliate against attacks despite appeals from allies including Britain To avoid further escalation of the crisis.

It is understood that some members of the war cabinet proposed immediate retaliatory strikes, but the plan was scrapped due to pressure from US President Joe Biden. New York Times Report.

Sources say Biden is keeping all options “on the table” as he considers whether to revive a deal that would prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons as part of a broader diplomatic effort to prevent an all-out war in the Middle East I.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a former agent of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency has claimed.

However, experts believe that Israel is unlikely to attack these nuclear facilities alone because its military lacks the ability to cause serious damage to nuclear facilities without US support.

A war game conducted by a Washington think tank Simulating an Israeli attack A study of Iran’s nuclear facilities found that these measures were ineffective and led to “destructive conventional missile attacks on Israel” by the Iran-aligned Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, triggering an all-out war.

Linda Robinson, senior fellow for foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank, said: “There is no doubt that Israel will respond with some kinetic or non-kinetic measures, but it is also aware of the benefits it derives from it.” The international community after the Iran attack support.

“If it goes all out, that support is at risk. Israel will make its own decisions, of course it will, but the path forward requires allies,” Netanyahu said.

“Officials have assured me that Israel prefers a restrained response and that decisions are in the hands of a very small number of people, excluding far-right members of the cabinet.”

With Israel still considering its response, there is hope that further escalation remains avoidable.

Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said Israel “will almost certainly respond with an attack of its own” but he expected the response to be “specific and controlled, not It will lead to another major incident in Iran.” reply”.

The war in Gaza has spread to other parts of the Middle East, with ongoing fighting between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel.

An Israeli MP told I The country is preparing for a three-front war, but so far there has been no full-scale escalation of the conflict.

After the attack, British Prime Minister Sunak faced pressure from senior Conservatives and the Israeli government to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, but he has refused to do so to avoid endangering Britain’s capabilities. Engage Tehran.

How critical is this moment?

Dr David Wearling, lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex, told Sky News: “In some ways the situation is much more dangerous now than it was in 1914 and 1939 because the major powers all have nuclear weapons.”

“The danger here is not that one side makes a premeditated decision to trigger the apocalypse, but that a conflict or area of ​​tension escalates to a point where one side makes a move that the other side misunderstands, and then a nuclear exchange ensues even though no one is looking for it. It’s starting. We should take this risk very seriously, especially with regard to Ukraine and Taiwan.

How should the UK prepare?

Senior figures within the UK Armed Forces have been calling for more defense spending and more military personnel amid rising global tensions.

British Army chief General Patrick Saunders said British citizens should be “trained and equipped” to fight in a potential war with Russia, sparking a national discussion about the prospect of conscription.

Gen. Sir Richard Sharif, Britain’s former top NATO commander, said it was something the country should consider.

Former senior army chief General Sir Richard Barrons told I The armed forces were “weak” and must be rebuilt, warning the British people that they must prepare for conscription and make other sacrifices to defend Britain in the event of a Russian attack.

Defense Secretary Grant Shapps has warned of a wave of conflicts involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran over the next five years, saying we are moving “from a post-war world to a pre-war world”.

However, the government says it has no plans to introduce conscription.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Defense said: “We have made clear that increasing recruitment and improving retention rates across the services is a priority, but there is no recommendation to reinstate conscription.”

The chancellor insisted that the government would meet its defense spending target of 2.5% of GDP “where economic conditions permit”, from the current level of around 2.2%.