Conservatives could have “fewer than 100” MPs after next election, major poll suggests

A major poll suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives will win fewer than 100 seats in a general election as the party faces its worst result in its history.

A seat-by-seat poll of 15,000 people suggested the Conservatives would win in just 98 constituencies in England, while losing heavily in Scotland and Wales.

Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer Survation’s research predicts he could come to power with a landslide victory of 468 seats.

The survey shows that the Labor Party’s support rate is 45%, and the Conservative Party’s support rate is 26%, lagging behind by 19 percentage points.

The SNP won 41 seats, the Lib Dems 22 and Glad Cymru 2 seats.

In 2019, the Conservatives held 365 seats, Labor 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and the Gladys 4.

Prime Minister He himself is in danger of losing his own constituency of New Richmond and Northallerton in North Yorkshire, as his lead over Labor is just 2.4%.

Several other cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, may also be ousted.

House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, home secretary James Cleverley and defense secretary Grant Shapps will all lose their seats, according to research by the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group.

Business secretary Kemi Badenoch, former home secretary Suella Braverman and former immigration secretary Robert Jenrick look likely to retain their seats .

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is another who could be voted out as he holds just a 1 per cent advantage over the Lib Dems in the new seat of Godalming and Ashe.

The poll highlights the threat posed by the Reform Party to the Conservatives, who are expected to finish second in seven seats with 8.5% of the vote.

If Richard Tice’s party does not contest, the likely outcome is that the Conservatives will win 150 seats – still a heavy defeat, but likely to hand Mr Sunak, or more likely his successor Or, a better chance to rebuild.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “With polls showing large numbers of voters no longer supporting the Conservatives, it’s clear this is going to be an election of change.”

Survation polled 15,029 adults between March 8 and 22, using a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model precinct-level outcomes.

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In a sign of Britain’s reform ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been contacted about defecting to a party linked to Nigel Farage.

He wrote in The Sun on Sunday: “I say no to reform because I believe in loyalty. I won’t run away and neither should we.”

A spokesman for the reformists told the newspaper: “If he wants to reject the only chance to save his life, well, that’s up to him.”