What’s behind Putin’s attempts to link Ukraine to Moscow terror attacks?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to link Ukraine to the recent attack on a Moscow concert hall without evidence in an effort to further mobilize domestic public support for Russian military action in Ukraine, international security experts told VOA.

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the March 22 attack on the city hall concert hall in Crocus, a suburb of Moscow, that killed at least 143 people and injured about 360 others.

Russian authorities announced the arrest of 12 people allegedly related to the attack, including four Tajik citizens suspected of being the gunmen.

“Islamic State-Khorasan”, a branch of the extremist organization “Islamic State”, claimed responsibility for the attack, and Russia received a warning from U.S. intelligence agencies in early March. Nonetheless, the Kremlin accused Ukraine of providing a “window” for the Tajik citizen accused in the incident to escape.

“The Kremlin is using a cynical but convenient tactic to try to link this attack to Ukraine,” said retired colonel Robert Hamilton, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington and a security expert. “To be clear, Ukraine did not Engage in this matter. Ukraine has not committed acts of terrorism or war crimes in the conflict against Russia, as Russia has done.”

Hamilton believed that harming Russia in this way was also not in Kiev’s interests, even in a military-strategic sense.

“Ukraine had other ways of attacking Russia and used underwater and aerial drones, but it struck legitimate military or economic targets, not concert venues, causing hundreds of civilian casualties,” he said. “If By doing this, Ukraine will only mobilize the Russian public and increase support for Putin and the war.”

trying to shift responsibility

Adrian Stuny, a senior researcher at the International Counter-Terrorism Center in The Hague, said a terrorist attack of this scale, especially in a heavily fortified city such as Moscow, requires a lot of planning time, as well as money, logistics, weapons and a man who is able and willing to covertly The extremist network that carries out this activity.

“Putin falsely accused Ukraine and Western countries of involvement in the attack in an attempt to deflect blame by repackaging his failure for domestic consumption,” Shtuni said.

Max Abrams, an associate professor at Northeastern University in Boston, said all evidence points to Islamic State being behind the attack. He used another abbreviation for the group to explain how the extremist group typically operates.

“When ISIS launches an attack and takes responsibility, it goes through a very specific process,” Abrams said. “It claimed responsibility through specific media channels. Now it has gone through the process and provided more information, photos and videos, which has been confirmed by both Americans and Europeans.”

The “Islamic State” Khorasan organization, which originated in Khorasan Province in southwestern Afghanistan, issued a statement on its media channel claiming responsibility for the incident. A day later, it released footage of the attack inside the concert hall.

seeking support for war

Abrams said terrorist attacks can strengthen the leaders of victim countries, recalling that Putin became politically stronger after attacks by extremists in Chechnya.

“Leaders know that when there is foreign action, especially terrorist action, public support for the government is likely to increase,” Abrams said. “Putin is trying to gain political momentum for the war in Ukraine because of his support for the war. All available domestic help is needed and will be extremely costly not only for Ukraine but also for Russia.”

Russian authorities confirmed they had received information about a possible terrorist attack from U.S. intelligence in early March but rejected it, with Putin calling it a “provocation and attempt to undermine national security.”

“It turned out that the U.S. intelligence warnings were correct. They mentioned major events and even concert venues,” Hamilton said. “They were issued in early March, weeks before the attacks. The U.S. ambassador to Moscow The embassy warned citizens to avoid traveling to these places for their own safety. Unfortunately, Russia ignored these warnings and attacked the U.S. government.”

Hamilton said Russia’s accusations of Ukraine’s alleged involvement in the case fit “the narrative that Putin has been trying to push for years, that the West is at war with Russia.”

Given the political situation in Russia, where Putin just won a new six-year term and the government brutally suppresses any sign of opposition, it’s unclear what impact Moscow’s accusations will have on the war in Ukraine.

“Of course, some Russians will understand that Ukraine was not behind the attack. I have even read reports that there are indications that some key members of Putin’s entourage disagree with his efforts to link the terrorist attacks to Ukraine. But. There is certainly a segment of Russians who are only exposed to what Putin says will support his retaliation against Ukraine,” Abrams said.

‘A personal blow to Putin’s image’

Shtuni believes that the Crokus City Hall attack represents a major personal failure for Putin.

“The attack is also a blow to Putin’s personal image and credibility just days after he was reelected to a fifth term as president and pledged to ensure Russia’s security,” he said. “The attack comes at a time when Russia is embroiled in Putin’s attacks on neighboring countries. The fact that Ukraine has chosen war for no apparent reason shows how Putin has neglected Russia’s internal security.”

Shtuni said the Kremlin’s accusations against Ukraine fit well with the new campaign to conscript 150,000 people into the army.

“The intensification of disinformation and military mobilization may indicate the Kremlin’s intention to intensify its illegal war and bloody aggression against Ukraine and its people,” he said.