Every vote counts in this election, at least for former President Donald Trump.

Based on the potential influence of minor-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, it appears the former president will succeed in reclaiming the White House. USA Today.

The op-ed was written by Jonathan Cowan and Jim Kessler, policy presidents of the center-left think tank Third Way. They say recent polls in six battleground states show a glimmer of hope for Democrats, with President Joe Biden leading in Wisconsin and tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, according to them, the introduction of minor party candidates tipped the balance in Trump’s favor.

In a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Biden’s slim lead in Wisconsin turned into a loss, and Pennsylvania swung toward Trump when those secondary candidates were taken into account. Similar trends have been observed in other surveys. So that suggests a possible shift toward Donald Trump when smaller candidates come on board. The shift could return Trump to the White House.

A Quinnipiac poll conducted the same week showed similar results. Biden leads nationally by 3 points. But after Kennedy, Stein or West entered the political scene, Trump took the lead.

Trump’s vote cap has been below 50% of the electorate. The minor party candidate played a decisive role in his 2016 victory by taking away 5.6% of the vote from his opponent. The absence of such candidates in 2020 hurts Trump.

This year, at least three minor party candidates are seeking to appear on the ballot. Each could hurt Biden’s chances. West and Stein, who are on the far left, may not get many votes, but they may be enough to tip the scales in Trump’s favor.

Additionally, the addition of RFK Jr. adds another layer of complexity. Despite his controversial views, his candidacy may appeal to some Democratic voters. Therefore, he will further complicate the electoral situation.

The lesson from past elections is clear: Minor party candidates can have a big impact. Voters and the media need to scrutinize these candidates and recognize their potential to influence the outcome.