Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on tropical destinations.
Spring is officially here in North America and Europe, and people are rushing to dine on patios, ride bikes along flower-filled meadows, and go boating in parks. Scientists predict this is a window of pleasant weather that will be followed by another record-breaking hot summer.
If this window feels short, there’s reason to believe it’s growing — at least in some parts of the world.
By the end of the century, residents of northern countries were often seeing sunny, spring-like balms earlier in the winter. Conversely, much of the southern region, including the equatorial region and extending into southern Europe and the United States, will have fewer days of temperate weather throughout the year.
That’s the conclusion of an innovative MIT study published in March in the Journal of Climate that projected the long-term impacts of climate change on specific destinations around the world. The study combined data from 50 climate models to map how “outdoor days” will count in each destination by 2100.
The term refers to the 24-hour window in which temperatures are warm enough for most people to enjoy the outdoors. (Winter sports don’t count.) The impact on quality of life, travel and tourism is huge.
“Changes in the number of days spent outdoors will have a direct impact on how people around the world experience climate change,” Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of environmental engineering at MIT who led the study, said by email.
There are clear winners and losers.
“Russia, Canada and other northern hemisphere countries will have more time outdoors in the future,” said Yeonwoo Choi, a postdoctoral fellow at MIT and a member of the research team. “On the other hand, developing countries like Côte d’Ivoire will spend less time outdoors, so there is a clear gap between the northern and southern hemispheres.”
The study’s results are consistent with the fact that the effects of climate change will be more pronounced in countries in the Southern Hemisphere, despite their lower emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
While these changes will have a far more profound impact on residents of these destinations than tourists, it is worth considering how climate change will change the places tourists visit. It has implications for where and when people travel, and for the tourism economies of countries that rely on holidaymakers.
With that in mind, we used data from MIT to create a scorecard showing how days outdoors will fluctuate in the world’s most visited tourist destinations—the latest rankings released by United Nations Tourism in 2022 .
Beyond these most visited countries, certain trends persist.
Tropical destinations are expected to be most affected. By 2100, the Dominican Republic will have 124 fewer days of outdoor activity and a 50% reduction in year-round temperate climate. Mexico, India, Thailand and Egypt in the northern hemisphere will experience similar reductions, with the number of outdoor days per year reduced from 55 to 86. The United Arab Emirates will also be affected; it is expected to lose 85 days of good weather each year, not counting the torrential rains this month that could bring unprecedented paralysis to Dubai Airport.
By comparison, the number of days spent outdoors will increase from 18 to 60 by 2100 in France, the UK, Germany and Austria. This is largely due to warmer winters, which is unwelcome news for the ski industry. In the Mediterranean, Greece is expected to lose more than 30 outdoor days by 2100 due to hot summer temperatures from May to September.
O’Shannon Burns, a sustainable tourism consultant and program manager at Cornell University’s Center for Sustainable Global Enterprise, said this is the first study she has seen that uses outdoor activities to highlight the impacts of climate change. “This really drives home how deeply the tourism industry will be affected by climate change and the importance of destination-level climate action planning,” she said.
Wondering how Outdoor Days will change in your state or country? Use this website to find out. Select “SSP1-2.6” for results reflecting a more optimistic climate change outlook, and “SSP5-8.5” to explore darker scenarios. Use Variables to further customize the results by selecting the range of outdoor temperatures you consider comfortable.
