Officials and analysts say Israel’s limited retaliation against Iran provides an opportunity for de-escalation, but the threat of a major conflict will remain as long as underlying tensions are unresolved.

Iranian authorities downplayed the attack, which used a drone to strike a military installation northwest of the city of Isfahan early on Friday but caused no casualties or major damage. Iranian officials said they would not retaliate.

Israel expressed satisfaction that the attack achieved its objectives but stopped short of formally claiming sovereignty. According to an Israeli newspaper, the attack was “intended to send a message to Iran that Israel is capable of launching attacks within the country” jerusalem post Citing official sources.

Israeli lawmaker Sharon Haskel, a member of the National Security Council, said the attack could serve as a warning to the Iranian regime.

“This shows Iran’s vulnerability,” she told I. “Iran does not have the ability to defend itself and different forces can reach their territory at any time, including military targets, and it is important that they remember this.”

Ms Haskell said Israel was fighting a “long war” with Iran and its allied militias in the region, with peaks and troughs in intensity.

Israel will continue to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-linked militants in Iraq and Syria, she said, adding that whether Israel and Iran directly attack each other again “depends on Iran.”

Dr. Hamidreza Aziz, an expert on Iranian foreign policy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Israel’s retaliatory actions provide a fragile basis for de-escalation.

“This appears to be a small-scale, planned attack and not as widespread as feared, so there is room for optimism,” he said. “But Iranian colleagues are concerned that this may be just the beginning of an Israeli response.”

Many details of the attack remain unclear, such as the weapons used (Israeli sources suggested missiles and drones were used) and the extent of the damage, which could affect Iran’s calculations.

“A key point to watch in the coming hours and days is whether the Iranian side maintains its position that there were no casualties or losses,” Dr Aziz said. “It also depends on the Israeli side – whether any officials take responsibility for the attack. responsibility, or explain details that might prompt Iran to respond.”

Part of the reason for Israel’s limited response may be that intensive multilateral diplomacy pressured Tel Aviv not to escalate following last weekend’s Iranian air strikes, which followed an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on the 1st, killing several senior military officials. April.

Britain, the United States and Germany have sent senior representatives to Israel over the past week in an effort to contain the crisis.

Former Middle East Minister Alistair Burt said, “The attacks on Iranian diplomatic premises and directly on Israel have crossed the red line and have pushed the threshold to the edge. Both regional countries and Western countries will use various channels.”

“The region hopes that all parties will withdraw, but there is also a sense that unless real channels of dialogue are opened this time, there is still a risk that things could blow up again.”

Dr Aziz said a “balance of terror” also contributed to the limited strikes.

“Both sides know their limits and they want to signal to the other side that you do have those limits, so stay where you are,” he said. “For Iran, this is to show that even if there is advance warning and everyone is prepared, some missiles can still get through.

“Israel sent a message to Iran that they have huge weaknesses in air defense and intelligence, so we can reach you as well.”

But the so-called shadow war shows no sign of abating, with Iran’s allied militias attacking Israel from across the region, Israel attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian forces in Syria. concerns about the situation. The crisis could happen again soon.

Emil Hokayem, regional security director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Israel’s response may allow both sides to move on for now, but the danger has not passed yet.

“The Israelis avoid overt triumphalism while demonstrating their dominance over escalation, and the Iranians can pretend that everything is fine while the United States celebrates a small success,” he wrote.

“But the spiral is still turning downward: the rules on the battlefield are being rewritten, Gaza is still bleeding, and other war zones are still hot.”