Earlier this month, Pakistani voters expressed frustration with the country’s powerful military in surprising election results. But the military remains poised to have more behind-the-scenes control than ever before, and economic recovery will be its ultimate test.
The military, which has ruled Pakistan directly or indirectly for much of its modern history, will make all important decisions on foreign policy and security for the country’s new government, as well as manage the country’s economy, a person familiar with the matter said. play a greater role. Said this matter. Shehbaz Sharif, who is expected to become prime minister, is likely to be just a figurehead, the person said. He requested anonymity because the information is private.
The military is consolidating power as Pakistan faces Asia’s worst inflation, a heavy debt burden and the need to negotiate another bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Observers are generally pessimistic that a weak military-backed coalition will fare better than similar governments in the past.
Yusuf Nazar, a former Citigroup banker and author of “The Gathering Storm: Pakistan,” said that while the military “certainly has more credibility than politicians,” “Historically, the military has not shown a need to a strong grasp or understanding of what to do”.
Pakistan’s military and Sharif’s party did not respond to requests for comment.
Pakistan’s two conservative parties, controlled by the Sharif and Bhutto families, agreed last week to form a government, breaking nearly two weeks of deadlock after the outcome of the Feb. 8 election was unclear. The elected members will meet in the Pakistan Parliament on February 29. The first session of the National Assembly will elect the Prime Minister, with former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expected to take over.
The move frustrated former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who fell out of favor with the military and was eventually jailed. His party colleagues, forced to run as independents, still won the most seats but fell short of an outright majority. Khan’s party performed better than most surveys in what was seen as a sharp rebuke of the military’s attempts to sideline Khan and rig the election to achieve its desired outcome.
The new coalition regime “will be entirely dependent on the goodwill of the military to maintain the status quo,” said Omar Valaich, a political commentator and special adviser at the Open Society Foundations, which provides grants to civil society. He said the military could easily be overturned if they disagreed on policy.
This is the story of much of Pakistan’s history since independence in 1947. Khan himself, for example, was widely seen as having the support of the generals when he came to power in 2018. But relations soured when the former cricketer tried to influence military appointments, leading to his expulsion. Shehbaz was designated as his successor. His brother Nawaz, a three-time former prime minister, also has a history of being backed by the military and then overthrown, including in a coup.
Shehbaz has maintained rapprochement with the military, including publicly praising Army Chief Asim Munir. During his tenure, the Shehbaz government passed two bills giving more powers to the military. One criminalizes criticism of the armed forces; another gives security forces unlimited powers to arrest any individual they deem to pose a threat.
Pakistan established the Special Investment Facilitation Committee in June during Shehbaz’s term to promote foreign investment and stimulate economic growth. One of the members of the committee is Army Chief of Staff Munir. Its immediate goal is to increase foreign direct investment to $5 billion. No major deals have been signed so far.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2023 Democracy Index, released earlier this month, downgraded Pakistan from a “hybrid regime” to a “dictatorship.”
An official familiar with the matter said that Pakistan’s archrival India wants the Pakistani army to play a more critical role because the mandate is diffused and no leader can oppose the army. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to speak to the media. The official said he would not rule out making peace proposals with India after new governments in both countries are settled. Indian elections are scheduled to be held later this year.
Some in Pakistan see the military’s repressive role as a good thing.
“As long as we have a military government, decision-making is easier. So, economic indicators are sometimes better,” said Omar Mahmood Hayat, a retired army lieutenant general and chairman of Pakistan food manufacturer Unity Foods Ltd. Economy under former military dictator Pervez Musharraf.
Musharraf, who was in power from 1999 to 2008, led an economy that outperformed other elected governments, according to Bloomberg Economics’ Misery Index, which looks at unemployment and inflation. Musharraf is favored by Western allies. His tenure largely coincided with the worst days of the war on terror, which saw an influx of dollars into Pakistan to fight terrorism.
Hayat said the military provides policy continuity that civilian governments often cannot.
One question is how the public will respond to the new government after voters voted for Khan loyalists who denounced the status quo. Supporters of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party took to the streets over the weekend to protest against alleged vote-rigging.
“It definitely sends a message that people are not happy with their intervention,” Ayesha Siddiqa, a political scientist and senior fellow at King’s College London, said of the military.
Shehbaz’s brother Nawaz is widely expected to become the new prime minister with the support of the army after he returned from exile in London and was acquitted of corruption charges.
But Mohammad Waseem, professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences, said Shehbaz became the military’s choice.
“He was a great compromiser,” Wasim said. “He’ll try to stabilize the situation by giving and taking in key moments.”
Still, Sharif and the military behind him could inflame the public even more by agreeing to a deal with the International Monetary Fund that would require accepting tough conditions from the multilateral lender.
The military may be stronger than ever, but it faces an unprecedentedly difficult task.
“The economic crisis has now become a national security issue,” Wallach said. “If the economic recovery doesn’t work, everything can easily be blamed on Shehbaz Sharif and he could be fired.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
