Washington——

What would normally be a moment of celebration has now turned into one of anxiety as counterterrorism officials remain on high alert for new Easter plots by the Islamic State terror group building on deadly attacks in Moscow.

Some European countries have already issued higher threat alerts while tightening security. Particularly in Italy, the approach to the Easter holidays is one reason for further concern.

The latest propaganda from the Islamic State (also known as IS or ISIS) has only heightened this concern.

In a statement released on Thursday to mark the tenth anniversary of the Islamic State first declaring its now-defunct caliphate in Iraq and Syria, its spokesman Abu Huthaifa al-Ansar called for followers Researchers are targeting the Crusaders, especially in Europe and the United States.

Even the group’s Amaq news agency claimed responsibility for the attack near Moscow, but said its agents targeted a group of Christians. In January, Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack on a Catholic church in Istanbul that left one person dead.

IS also has a history of attacking Christians celebrating Easter, notably claiming responsibility for the April 2019 Easter bombings in Sri Lanka that killed more than 300 people and injured at least 500 others.

“Easter and/or Easter-related activities will definitely be a focus for potential attacks,” said Colin Clarke, director of research at global intelligence firm Soufan Group.

“ISIS is gaining momentum and there could be a real push to maintain that momentum by launching another high-profile attack, especially against a symbolic target,” Clark told VOA. “I would also be worried about Orthodox Easter next weekend. “The logical place to look is where ISIS has previously attacked Christian targets.”

“Significant” threat risk

Other countries, while acknowledging the threat, say they have long been on high alert against such plots and would do little good by issuing additional alerts.

A German government spokesman told VOA on condition of anonymity: “The security services’ risk assessment of the Islamic threat in Germany has not yet changed as a result of the horrific attack in Moscow.”

“This number has been high before,” the official added, calling the Islamic State’s Afghan branch “currently the most aggressive of the terrorist group’s branches” while adding, “It currently poses a threat to Germany.” the greatest Islamic threat.”

The UK has taken a similar stance.

An unnamed spokesman told VOA: “The threat from terrorism to the UK is already significant, which means an attack is likely to occur.” “This assessment has not changed.”

In the United States, nothing has changed.

Last May, U.S. officials warned that the country was caught in a “highly threat environment.” In September 2023, the Department of Homeland Security’s annual threat assessment said the United States faced a “high risk” of terrorist attacks, specifically citing the Afghan branch of the Islamic State (also known as IS-Khorasan, ISIS-K or ISKP).

“We remain vigilant to the evolving threats from terrorist groups, including ISIS-K,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Thursday. “We remain unwaveringly focused.”

american assessment

The Pentagon issued similar assurances.

“The Department of Defense is not looking away from ISIS,” press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in response to questions from VOA on Thursday.

The latest U.S. intelligence assessment paints the Islamic State as a terrorist group that may be at a turning point, underscoring what the intelligence community’s annual threat assessment released earlier this month described as “cascading losses to leadership in Iraq and Syria.”

But the same report warned that “regional affiliates will continue to expand.” While the U.S. report cited a shift to Africa, U.S. and other current and former Western officials believe the Islamic State’s leadership in Afghanistan is taking on a more prominent role .

Earlier this year, a former senior Western counterterrorism official told VOA: “Most of the plots we know about are related to ISIS-K.”

There have long been concerns about Islamic Khorasan’s efforts to expand its reach beyond Afghanistan.

Some Western officials and regional observers have warned that as early as 2021, the Afghan branch of the “Islamic State” was trying to cultivate small but capable organizations and networks in Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as a means of future attacks. Foundation.

Aaron Zelin, a researcher specializing in jihadism at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “In the past decade, when the Islamic State controlled Syrian territory, there was a large number of foreign fighters from Central Asia who went to Syria. So those who survived Probably the backbone of this wider network of facilitation and conspiracy/attacks.

“There is also a small group of Central Asians who have joined the ISKP in Afghanistan,” Zelin told VOA. “The Islamic State can then recruit from Central Asian immigrant communities in Russia, just like they recruit Arab immigrants in Western Europe.”

Focus on Central Asia

A Central Asian humanitarian official, who requested anonymity for fear of being targeted, told VOA that the Islamic State has successfully established small, high-quality organizations and networks throughout the region.

“These networks still exist, but they don’t recruit more people [big] the official said, adding that there were signs that “recruitment may occur more outside of Central Asia.”

“Vulnerabilities and enablers [that move someone to join IS] The official said Russia’s immigration bias is much stronger, especially given Russia’s current attitude toward immigrants. He points out that the same factors exist in many European countries with Central Asian diaspora communities.

There are signs that the Islamic Khorasan Group has found ways to exploit other terrorist groups.

Andrew Means, a program specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said, “ISKP not only attracts foreign recruits, but also cooperates with leading Central Asian groups such as IMU. [Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan] And… ETIM/TIP [Turkistan Islamic Party] On a more limited scale. “

Means told VOA that the Islamic Khorasan Group has proven to be adept at maximizing its resources.

“ISKP has demonstrated its ability to receive, train and deploy assets within and outside Afghanistan, using ‘virtual planners’ and inspired attack planning models.”

It is these types of capabilities, combined with high-profile attacks such as the one near Moscow and two suicide bombings in Kerman, Iran, in January that have made IS-Khorasan more vulnerable, current and former officials say. became a formidable threat, although some data suggests that the branch’s exploits in Afghanistan itself have been declining.

IS-Khorasan’s attacks in Russia and a foiled plot in Germany late last year, both of which appeared to rely on ethnic Tajiks, may also be signs that the group’s efforts to build an expanded network are about to bear fruit.

“This may even be the first real flowering of the mature capabilities of the Islamic State-Khorasan group,” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former senior U.N. counterterrorism official who used the term ISIS. Another abbreviation for the Afghan branch.

Fitton-Brown, now a senior adviser to counter-extremism programs in New York and Berlin, worries that Islamic State leaders will want to capitalize on the momentum generated by this year’s successful terror attacks.

“They get attention for Iran. They get more attention for doing this in Russia. If they can achieve results of this magnitude in Western Europe, they will get more attention,” he told VOA.

“But whether they can succeed is still a question, because so far they have actively planned terrorist plots in Western Europe, especially in Germany, but they have failed, but they have all been discovered, stopped and disrupted.” “, Fitton-Brown explain.