Ukraine’s top commander said on Sunday (local time) that Russian forces aim to capture the town of Chasiv Yar by May 9, setting the stage for a major battle for control of the eastern highlands in which Russia will focus its offensive.

On the day Moscow marked the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II, the fall of the town west of the city of Bakhmut will show that momentum is building on the Russian battlefield as Kiev faces a slowdown in Western military aid.

Gen. Alexander Silsky, who warned over the weekend of a worsening situation in the east, said Russia was focusing its efforts west of occupied Bakhmut in an attempt to capture Chasiv Yar before advancing on the city of Kramatorsk.

Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region is 5 to 10 kilometers from Bakhmut, a devastated city that was captured by Russian forces in May last year after months of bloody fighting.

Kiev brigades are currently preventing attacks near Chasiv Yar and have been reinforced with ammunition, drones and electronic warfare equipment, he said in a statement on Telegram.

He said: “Considering that the top Russian military officials have given the troops the task of capturing Chasiv Yar before May 9, this threat is still of realistic significance.” But he did not elaborate.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov wrote on Facebook that he inspected Ukrainian forces on the eastern front on Sunday and called the situation “tense” as Russia tried to make gains west of Bakhmut.

“Despite the enemy’s numerical superiority, we effectively disrupted these plans due to the courage, training and professionalism of the defenders,” he wrote.

Russia commemorated May 9 with a large military parade in Red Square hosted by President Vladimir Putin. Putin won a new six-year term in the Kremlin in tightly controlled elections in March.

Attacks on energy systems

The war has escalated in recent weeks, with Russia carrying out three large-scale air strikes on Ukrainian power plants and substations, raising concerns about the resilience of an energy system that struggled during the first winter of the war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians in an evening speech on Sunday that “during such a hot war, the situation on the frontline is always difficult. But these days, especially on the Donetsk front, the situation has changed. It’s getting more and more difficult.”

Ukrainian leaders have warned that the Kremlin may be preparing for a major offensive in late spring or summer.

It is unclear where the attack will take place, but Russia is focusing its strikes on the Donetsk region.

Ukraine has tried to find pressure points to push back against the Kremlin this year, using domestically produced long-range drones to bomb oil facilities in Russia.

Ukraine now faces manpower challenges and a shortage of artillery shells.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, a Philadelphia think tank, said on X that Chasif Yar could be an important battle.

“Chasiv Yar is on defensible high ground. If Russia captures the town, they may accelerate their drive deeper into the Donetsk (region) as part of an anticipated summer offensive,” he said.

“Russian forces still have to cross the canal to capture (the town), but they have now reached the canal southeast of (the town). An immediate increase in ammunition deliveries may be critical,” he added.

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