Washington —

Tensions between Israel and Turkey over the war in Gaza threaten to escalate into a full-scale trade war, threatening a bilateral economic relationship between the two countries that have long been at loggerheads over political issues.

On Tuesday, the Turkish Trade Ministry announced new restrictions on the export of 54 products to Israel, including aluminum, steel, various construction products, aviation fuel and fertilizers.

Some experts believe Ankara has historically separated political issues from economic relations in its stance on Israel, but its recent statements signal a shift in policy.

Galea Lindenstrauss, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, said: “Turkey’s decision has been negatively impacted in Israel because the two countries are important trading partners and Ankara has so far struggled with tensions at the political level and trade. Barriers have been erected between relationships,” the Israel Studies Center (INSS) told VOA.

A day earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel was blocking Turkey from airdropping aid to Gaza and vowed to take measures against Israel until there is a ceasefire and aid flows permanently into the territory. Israel has yet to respond to Fidan’s statement.

Alan Makowsky, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, said he believes Turkey’s export restrictions are a response to domestic politics.

“I find it hard to believe that Turkey seriously thinks that Israel would approve allowing Turkey to participate in airdrops. When airdrops are conducted, Israel does not review what is included in the airdrop, so only countries they truly trust from a security perspective will be given permission. At least. , I believe that is the case,” Makovsky said.

“If Turkey did apply, I believe they knew when they applied that Israel would not be able to approve it. I suspect they used it as a cover for a real domestic political decision,” he said.

Makovsky was referring to the success of the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) in Turkey’s local elections last month. Third-ranked YRP was an outspoken critic of Erdogan for not cutting off trade with Israel during the campaign.

trade with israel

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz posted on X: “We will respond accordingly and prepare a Expanded list of add-on products Israel will block Turkish exports. “

Makovsky said trade between Israel and Turkey has “become increasingly unbalanced in favor of Turkey” in recent years.

The two countries signed a free trade agreement in 1996. According to the state-run Turkish Statistics Institute, Turkish exports to Israel were worth $5.4 billion in 2023, while Israeli exports to Turkey were worth $1.6 billion in the same year.

“The burden on Israel will be greater in terms of replacement materials, but Turkey could obviously have economic problems if these sales are not successful,” Makovsky said.

“I also wonder what message it would send to international investors if Turkey suddenly blocked the execution of private contracts for political reasons. That might not be a good thing for the Turkish economy,” he said.

Some experts say the restrictions will broadly impact Israel’s construction industry.

“For some materials, such as cement, Israel is highly dependent on imports from Turkey. Israel can find alternatives, but the costs will be higher and it may take time to find relevant alternatives,” INSS’s Linden Strauss told VOA.

According to the Israel Builders Association, Imported from Israel About 70% of steel construction materials and about one-third of cement demand come from Türkiye. Türkiye is also one of Israel’s main steel suppliers.

U.S. involvement

Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said he asked “Israel’s friends in the U.S. Congress to review Turkey’s violations of boycott laws against Israel and impose sanctions accordingly.”

Eugene Kontorovich, a law professor at George Mason University’s Scalia School of Law, said he believed Turkey’s actions “likely violated World Trade Organization agreements” but did not violate U.S. federal law.

“As for the U.S. response, Turkey’s selective export restrictions on Israeli products are unlikely to violate U.S. federal anti-boycott laws; state laws do not address boycotts imposed by various countries at all,” Kontorovich told VOA.

38 states in the United States have laws Countries are prohibited from contracting or investing in entities that boycott Israel.

Some analysts believe Congress is unlikely to take steps against Turkey given the debate in Washington over aid to Israel.

“They have a lot to do, and it seems to me that punishing Turkey for sanctions against Israel is unlikely to be a high priority on the congressional agenda anytime soon,” Makovsky said.