Tesla Musk predicts artificial intelligence will be smarter than the smartest humans next year

Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted on Monday that artificial intelligence could develop to be smarter than the smartest humans by next year or 2026.

In a wide-ranging interview with X Space, which has suffered from multiple technical glitches, Musk also told Norwegian Wealth Fund CEO Nicolai Tangen that artificial intelligence is limited by power supplies, and that from his xAI startup The next version of the company’s artificial intelligence chatbot, Grok, is expected to be trained by May.

When asked about the development timetable for AGI, Musk said: “If you define AGI (artificial intelligence) as being smarter than the smartest human being, I think it may be next year, which is within two years.”

The billionaire, who is also a co-founder of OpenAI, said the lack of advanced chips was hampering training of the Grok Version 2 model.

Musk founded xAI last year as a challenger to OpenAI, which he had sued for abandoning its original intention of developing artificial intelligence for human welfare rather than profit. OpenAI denies the accusations.

Musk said it would take about 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs to train the Grok 2 model, adding that Grok 3 models and higher would require 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips.

But he added that while chip shortages have so far been a major constraint on AI development, power supply will be critical in the next year or two.

When it comes to electric vehicles, Musk reiterated that Chinese automakers are “the most competitive in the world” and pose “the toughest competitive challenge” to Tesla.

He has previously warned that Chinese rivals would defeat global rivals without trade barriers.

Musk also addressed the union strike against Tesla in Sweden, saying “I think the storm has passed on that front.”

Tangen said one of Tesla’s largest shareholders, Norway’s $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund, met with the electric car company’s chairman last month and received an update on the situation.

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