Seoul, Korea–

South Korea’s left-leaning opposition won a decisive victory in Wednesday’s legislative election, with voters rebuking conservative President Yoon Seok-yeol’s party.

The main opposition Democratic Party and smaller coalition forces are expected to control about 184 seats in the 300-seat National Assembly, according to preliminary data released by the National Electoral Commission early Thursday.

However, the opposition bloc is expected to fall short of the crucial two-thirds majority that would upend South Korean politics. The 200-seat opposition party could have overridden Yoon’s legislative veto, proposed constitutional changes or even impeached the president.

If confirmed, the results would maintain the same basic dynamics that existed before the election – meaning opposition forces can continue to block Yoon Eun-hye’s domestic agenda, two years into her five-year presidential term.

Lee Sang-shin, who studies political science and public opinion at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said he expected South Korean politics to be in “three years of deadlock.”

Since taking office, Yoon has faced significant political obstacles as opposition forces already control the 180 seats needed to block any attempts to delay the legislative process.

But South Korea’s powerful presidency gives Yoon relatively free rein on foreign policy. Yoon has used this power to bring South Korea closer to its long-time ally the United States and its former colonial ruler Japan.

Foreign policy has not been the main issue in this election, with corruption, intra-party divisions and fiery personal accusations dominating instead.

Benjamin A. Engel, a research professor at the Institute of International Affairs at Seoul National University, said Yoon’s overseas agenda may not be affected much by the election results.

“The National Assembly is extremely weak on foreign policy. They can criticize and complain, but Yin doesn’t have to change unless he wants to change for political reasons – which he never seems to do – for better or for worse,” Engel said.

Mason Rich, an associate professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, said Yoon may find more reasons to prioritize foreign affairs amid disappointing election results.

“As a domestic lame duck, Yoon is likely to focus on foreign policy as much or even more than before because that’s where most of his formal power lies,” Rich said.

“The question is how far he can go if the wrangling within his own party leads to instability at the Blue House or key ministries,” he added.

Some analysts said conservatives may distance themselves from Yoon if they believe she has become a political liability ahead of the next presidential election in 2027.

Mr Yoon’s approval ratings have been low as he grapples with rising food prices, high housing costs, labor disputes and plummeting birth rates.

He has been embroiled in a series of scandals, one of which involved hidden camera footage showing his wife accepting a luxury Dior bag as a gift. He has also filed criminal charges against critical journalists and outlets at a record pace.

It’s not expected until later Thursday. Voter turnout was 67%, the highest turnout for a legislative election in more than three decades.

Joo-Hyun Lee contributed to this report.