Nigel Inkster is a senior adviser on China at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and spent three years working for the British Secret Intelligence Service, also known as MI6. VOA’s Natalie Liu recently spoke with him about the past year’s turmoil among China’s political elite, most notably the ouster of Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Foreign Minister Qin Gang.

As speculation continues to swirl about the fate of the two former officials, Inkster shared his thoughts on China’s foreign minister, with some reports alleging his involvement in espionage, the possibility of an internal coup attempt to overthrow powerful leader Xi Jinping, and Communist Party policies. Take control of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Voice of America: what makes you feel [Foreign Minister] Qin Gang was not involved in espionage activities?

Most: I find it difficult to imagine how an intelligence agency could maintain covert contact with someone who not only held such a high-profile position, but whose activities were actually constantly monitored by others. If you’re the ambassador to the United States, you don’t really have any real freedom to do anything on your own. It’s very difficult, but not impossible.

Internal plot?

Voice of America: Defense Minister Ri Shang-bok, Foreign Minister Qin Gang and others were inexplicably dismissed. Is it related to the conspiracy to remove Xi Jinping?

Most: I don’t remember if it was [Russian Vladimir] Lenin or [Russian Leon] Trotsky said: “When a dictator comes to power, his overthrow seems inconceivable, and once he is overthrown, his overthrow seems inevitable.” Of course, there is a reason for this.

It is clear that there is dissatisfaction and resistance to some of Xi Jinping’s policies, especially within China’s political elite. There are reports that there are plots within the Ministry of Public Security against the top leadership; these things come up on a regular basis. But my sense is that right now – and I could be completely wrong about this – but dissatisfaction and opposition to Xi Jinping’s policies is diffuse.

General Office of the CPC Central Committee

Most: We must remember that the General Office of the CCP Central Committee conducts pervasive surveillance of China’s top leaders; this office is responsible for organizing the top leadership’s affairs and in fact doubles as an intelligence agency that monitors the top leadership’s activities. This is the entity that Xi Jinping relies on to ensure that he understands what other top leaders are doing and thinking. It monitors all their communications, all their movements, so the scope of involvement in such a conspiracy is, in my opinion, quite limited.

Voice of America: If we return to Hua Guofeng [who took power after Mao Zedong died in 1976] At that time, Wang Dongxing, director of the general office, took the lead in the charge and overthrew the Gang of Four. [led by Mao’s widow Jiang Qing]No?

Most: It was him who did it.Of course, this is not impossible [that something like that could happen again], but keep in mind that when this happened, technology was in a more primitive state than it is now. I’m not saying it can’t happen. Nothing is impossible. I would say it’s a lot harder than it used to be.

The most powerful person in the Chinese Foreign Ministry

Voice of America: The top official listed on China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website is Mr. Qi Yu, chairman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Party Committee, who is also the dean of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Party School.Some Chinese commentators have linked Qi Yu to Xi Jinping, including as a potential relative [on his mother’s side].

Most: Under Xi Jinping, we have seen what I call the partisanization of the foreign ministry; you just read his speech to the Chinese ambassador late last year; he made it very clear that their first loyalty is to the party. This is a characteristic of China now.

The party controls everything, why not the Ministry of Foreign Affairs?I don’t know if that’s the case [that Xi has dispatched one of his relatives to watch over the Foreign Ministry]but the simple fact is that, obviously, it is [Xi’s] He was interested in doing everything possible to ensure that the Foreign Office actually implemented the plan and made policy the way he wanted it to be. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this is what happened.