US aid worth $61bn (£49.3bn) to Ukraine is a lifeline that will allow the country to “close the gap” in its war with Russia after months of losses and dwindling supplies of weapons and ammunition.
The bill could include artillery ammunition (including critical 155mm shells) and barrels, air defense systems and medium- and long-range missiles to replenish Ukraine’s depleted stockpiles.
Nick Reynolds, a land warfare researcher at London-based security think tank Rusi, said passing the bill was “hugely significant”. “Quite simply, it’s a lifeline,” he told I. “The Ukrainians are desperately short of artillery ammunition… They’re running out of artillery ammunition.”
The foreign aid package now heads to the Senate for its first vote on Tuesday, where it is expected to pass before being signed into law by President Joe Biden later this week. The bill has been stuck in limbo for months amid opposition from House Republicans.
A U.S. military official said some munitions could arrive in Ukraine “almost immediately.” Before the bill passed the House on Saturday, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said the United States could begin providing security assistance to Ukraine “within days” of the bill becoming law, thanks to the Pentagon’s robust logistics system. It added that it would be able to “promptly provide substantial security assistance.”
Justin Crump, a former British Army officer who runs risk intelligence company Sibylline, noted that Ukraine had recently had to start rationing its frontline artillery ammunition stocks. “For the United States, [the bill] It means suppliers can start supplying weapons to Ukraine immediately – but it provides assurances for Ukraine.Now they know more artillery is coming, they can start using what they have again,” he told I.
Immediately after the bill was passed, Ukrainian President Zelensky said: “The vital U.S. aid bill passed by the House of Representatives today will prevent the war from expanding, save thousands of lives, and help our two countries become stronger.”
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Rousey Institute, pointed out that of the $61 billion, about $13 billion was used to replenish the U.S. weapons inventory. “Approximately $28 billion is used to provide direct supplies to Ukraine: $13.9 billion to help Ukraine purchase equipment and $13.7 billion to purchase U.S. systems for Ukraine,” he said.
Ukraine will also receive more than $9bn (£7.28bn) in economic aid in the form of “forgivable loans”. This does not need to be repaid and helps the Ukrainian government continue to function. The United States also funds “military assistance” in the region. The national security package also includes a controversial provision that would allow Ukraine to use funds from seized Russian assets, despite some objections from the international banking system.
Mr Saville said: “While there may be a lag in the procurement of new supplies, the Pentagon has said that a number of items ready for donation but awaiting approval have been arranged to minimize delivery times, almost certainly including 155mm artillery shells.”
“The U.S. move provides additional assurances to other countries,” Mr. Crump said of the House-passed aid bill.
“People are worried that the United States is lagging behind, leaving a larger gap for other countries to fill. Now that the United States has returned to being the engine driving this process, other countries will be more confident.”
Demand for 155mm artillery shells soared during Russia’s war in Ukraine, with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg dubbing the war an “ammunition war” as Western allies raced to expand production of the vital shells .
Aid was provided at critical junctures in the war. Ukraine has been struggling because of a lack of air defense systems and a recent series of Russian air strikes, particularly targeting energy infrastructure, that have left it depleted of missiles. Russia has seized hundreds of square kilometers of territory in the east in recent weeks, following the fall of Avdievka in February.
The US has so far provided around $111bn (£89.7bn) in aid to Ukraine since the war began more than two years ago, while the EU authorized a further $54bn (£43.6bn) in February. Mr Stoltenberg pledged to strengthen NATO’s delivery of air defense systems.
Savile warned, however, that the aid package was unlikely to “immediately match Russia’s firepower, but it will help close the gap”.
Former NATO historian and defense analyst Peter Caddick Adams tells us I: “The money will be used to pay the salaries of civil servants, doctors and teachers who don’t pay taxes because they are fighting on the front lines,” but a significant amount will also be used to “improve air defenses, including the U.S. Patriot air defense system” that can intercept Russian missiles “.
Ukraine currently has three Patriot systems, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine needs 26 Patriot systems to cover the entire country and is urging European partners to send more systems.
Dr Caddick-Adams added: “Europe and the United States are beginning to realize that since the beginning of the conflict, the West’s strategy of continually providing funding and weapons has prolonged the war by making Russia stronger each time.”
The aid package may also include Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), some of which were donated to Ukraine by the United States last year. These missiles have a range of 300 kilometers and have been used by Ukraine to strike within Russia.
However, any donations to ATACMS may not be publicly disclosed. When the first shipments were shipped last summer, their delivery status was not disclosed due to safety concerns. In addition, Crump stressed that the Biden administration may not want the weapon system to be used to directly attack Russia.
Kristina Hook, professor of conflict management at Kennesaw State University I: “This weapons system, along with loud calls from international partners to support Ukraine’s legitimate capability to strike the sites of Russian attacks on its country and civilians (in occupied Ukraine and within Russia), is an internationally recognized contribution to driving Russians out of Ukraine. Borders are crucial.”
However, while Ukrainian politicians and commanders welcomed the aid bill, there are already concerns about the future of the war in Ukraine as Russia expands weapons production.
“This funding may just help stabilize Ukraine’s position this year and start preparing for operations in 2025,” Savile said. “Building morale and providing more ammunition to strengthen defenses is the hard work of starting to rebuild Ukraine’s fighting forces. necessary prerequisites and, crucially, collective training to build a force that has a chance of progress next year…but further planning will be needed for 2025, and funding will be needed between now and then when we have the US elections .
Reynolds added that the delay in passing the bill “seriously damages trust.” He said: “I think Ukrainians are shocked that such a significant disruption has been caused to American domestic politics… From a Ukrainian perspective, it doesn’t make sense. Especially when you consider how aggressive Russia is.
“Can trust between Ukraine and its international partners be rebuilt?”
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