Macron wants to look like Putin’s heavyweight – but it’s all PR

How does French President Emmanuel Macron feel about this? boxing pictures?

Maybe he’s imitating Sylvester Stallone Rocky IVa mediocre Cold War fable pitting a plucky American boxer against hulking Soviet fighter Ivan Drago (played by an actor and martial artist) Dolph Lundgren).

The French leader’s suggestion that NATO troops could be deployed in Ukraine has undoubtedly heightened tensions between France and Russia – and leaders Macron and Vladimir Putin.

But if Macron likes to portray himself as a European heavyweight ready to destroy the Russian tyrant, not everyone is convinced.

Macron’s macho posturing (in the ring, or with chest hair on display) and Putin (Riding topless on horseback) Underscoring the suspicion that both men suffered from short stature syndrome. The 5-foot-7 Macron has been derided by critics as a cross between the Sun King Louis XIV and Napoleon due to his diminutive stance and grandiose posture.

As the world grapples with Putin’s brutal conduct and distorted interpretation of history in the Ukraine war, it’s easy to recall Republican U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney’s disapproval of the also 5-foot-7 Russian dictator. The author described him as a “small, evil man with wild eyes.”

Professor Ian Robertson, a psychologist at Trinity College Dublin who is interested in the behavior of world leaders, believes their gestures may have different motivations.

“There is no doubt that much of Putin’s behavior – particularly the invasion of Crimea and Ukraine – was driven by a very personal agenda, driven by a sense that the West had been humiliated in a personal way,” he said.

“My second thought was that, though, much of Putin’s posing, shirtlessness, etc. was actually done for public relations reasons, as was Macron’s boxing photo.”

He added: “In my view, Macron’s behavior is a game of reason – creating uncertainty for Putin about the intentions of the West.”

But there’s more to the psychological drama Macron and Putin are playing out than just outsize egos.

First, the cultural and historical ties between France and Russia are complex.

“There are many factors at play here – the long history of friendship/hostility, French being the language of the Russian imperial court/society until the 18th century, Russian immigration in France, and Napoleon’s invasion in the early 19th century, which The incursions are continuing. “This will contribute to a sense of vulnerability among Russians,” said Professor Tracey German, a Russia expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “

The mutual fascination between the great French president and the Russian leader goes back many years. Macron’s royal pretensions were on full display in May 2017, when France maintained good relations with Russia despite France’s continued occupation of Crimea and Georgia. He even opened Louis XIV’s palace in 2007. Putin’s Versailles. For a French leader who has expressed a desire for a “Jove-like” presidential style, hosting the next Peter the Great on the site of Marie Antoinette makes perfect sense.

After Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Macron was criticized by some NATO allies for sending mixed messages about his stance on Moscow and its illegal invasion. Some even see Paris as the weak link in the Western alliance.

Vera Ajieva, a Russian political scientist at Sciences Po in Paris, said France had been blind to Putin’s true nature for decades.

“Putin has never been a friend of France or Europe,” she said. “During the ‘yellow vest’ crisis in 2017 and 2018, he carried out numerous actions aimed at destabilizing France. But he remained cooperative. French leaders have long been naive. Now they realize what they are facing Who’s right, they don’t want to be fooled anymore.”

In 2023, when Macron finally began to feel less uneasy about the revanchist and irredeemable nature of Putin’s regime, the French leader began to take a tougher approach – albeit without providing Ukraine with financial aid commensurate with the size of France’s economy. military aid.

Macron told sunday daily In February 2023, Russia must be defeated in Ukraine.Furious Kremlin says Macron should Remembering the fate of Napoleon Bonaparte (entered Russia in 1812 and soon left with his tail between his legs, leaving only 100,000 soldiers standing).

Last month, Macron went a step further, announcing that he was sending Western troops to Ukraine “It should not be ruled out,” aiming to do “more and better” in supporting Kiev. Sending troops to Ukraine appeared to cross a NATO red line. Macron’s surprisingly tough message was immediately opposed by the United States and Britain. The Kremlin took advantage The French president’s remarks were used as evidence to support his conspiracy theory that the West planned to attack his native Russia.

Tensions continued to rise on Tuesday when Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the virulently anti-Western Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), announced that France was preparing to send troops to Ukraine.

Naryshkin, keeping an eye on his domestic audience, claimed that 2,000 French troops would be deployed to Ukraine in the “initial phase” of a wider mission.

Russian state media continues to stage a “Macron revenge” narrative, suggesting that Paris is ‘Trying to score political points’.

newspaper IzvestiaGroups close to the Kremlin said Macron’s comments about troops in Ukraine were prompted by Russia’s success in using ex-Wagner mercenary groups to help expel French peacekeepers from Sahel countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Central African Republic.

France’s strengthening of ties with former Soviet states, particularly Armenia and Moldova, also “deeply irritates the Kremlin,” according to Dr Germain.

France and Moldova recently signed an agreement to strengthen military cooperation. Similar agreements between France and Armenia have angered Russia.

But as Macron bids farewell to his bromance with Kremlin sociopaths and future czars, he has other relationships and rivalries in mind when making statements about Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron’s rival for European leadership, has been criticized at home and abroad for refusing to equip Kyiv with the Taurus long-range missiles he wanted. Eliminate Russian targets.

Many believe Macron is trying to exploit Scholz’s difficulties through tough talk.

“I think this is definitely an attempt by Macron to take the lead on European support for Ukraine because Scholz has opened up a huge vacuum with his rather awkward hedging and fear of escalation,” said Director of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control Wilhelm Albock represents the Berlin-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Macron is also taking advantage of the space left by internal struggles in Congress over funding for military aid to Ukraine.”

However, Albuquerque believes Macron may be smarter than some give him credit for.

“On several occasions during the battle, Macron reversed positions and took the lead – on mobile artillery he sent a handful of Caesars, which in turn opened the door to the alliance. Then on tanks he agreed to send AMX-30, Even though they were not the best main battle tanks, it broke resistance. He did the same thing again with fighters – he still didn’t send fighters, but he did get rid of Allied support.

He said Macron’s discussions about stationing troops in Ukraine were “another low-cost means of seizing dominance, changing the dialogue and supporting Ukraine without causing any real danger.”

Echoing Professor Robertson’s analysis, he argued that this triggered a panic response from Russia, which further undermined the potency of Putin’s nuclear threat. The strategies were “not bad,” he said.

But Aviva believes Macron still has a lot to make up for. “Macron thought Putin was rational and responsible, but he was wrong. Now he regrets letting him go so far in Europe,” she said.