Lancet research shows that since 1950, India’s fertility rate has dropped from 6.2 to below 2

India’s fertility rate fell from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. (representative)

New Delhi:

A new global study published in The Lancet shows that India’s fertility rate fell from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021, and is expected to fall further to 1.29 in 2050 and 1.04 in 2100. .

The figures are in line with global trends, with the total fertility rate (TFR) falling from 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children per woman in 2021. These numbers are expected to drop to 1.8 and 1.6 in 2020. 2050 and 2100 respectively.

The study found that the number of newborns worldwide in 2021 was 129 million, up from about 930 million in 1950, but down from the peak of 142 million in 2016.

In India, the number of live births in 1950 and 2021 was over Rs 16 crore and Rs 22 crore respectively. This number is expected to fall to Rs 13 crore by 2050.

However, while much of the planet grapples with the challenge of low fertility, many low-income countries will still face high fertility in the 21st century, say researchers who collaborate on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasts. .

They say high fertility rates in these low-income regions, especially those in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will lead to a polarization of the world’s population.

Researchers predict that most children will be born in some of the world’s poorest regions, with low-income countries’ share of global live births almost doubling from 2021 to 2100, from 18% to 35% .

Additionally, as climate change worsens, many low-income countries with high fertility rates are expected to experience more frequent floods, droughts and extreme heat, all of which threaten food, water and resource security and significantly increase the risk of Heat-related illness and death.

Researchers’ latest findings on fertility will have far-reaching consequences for the economy, geopolitics, food security, health and the environment as the world’s population ages, with a “clear demographic divide” between the effects on middle- and high-income groups. They say incomes compare to low-income areas.

Unless governments find unforeseen innovation or funding to address the challenges of an aging population, this demographic shift will put increasing pressure on national health insurance, social security programs and health care infrastructure, the team said. .

They also acknowledge that while continued decline in the world’s population may bring opportunities for environmental progress by reducing pressure on resources and carbon emissions, increases in per capita consumption resulting from economic development may offset these benefits.

To limit the concentration of live births in these high-fertility, low-income areas, researchers recommend improving women’s access to education and contraception, two major drivers of fertility.

Although fertility rates are declining globally, researchers predict that sub-Saharan Africa will experience “substantial declines in fertility over the coming decades” through rapid expansion of education and access to contraceptives.

The GBD study is the largest and most comprehensive study to quantify health losses across regions and over time, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington (UW), which coordinated the study.

Poonam Muttreja, executive director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI), a non-profit organization that promotes gender-sensitive population and health policymaking, said the findings have “profound implications” for India, among others. These include an aging population, labor shortages, and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences.

“While India is still decades away from these challenges, we need to start taking action now to take a comprehensive approach to the future,” Ms Mutreja said in a statement.

“Economic policies that stimulate growth and job creation, as well as social security and pension reforms, are also critical to adapt to and mitigate the impact of falling fertility rates,” Ms Mutreja said.

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