How Israel planned a six-week military operation in Gaza and a ground invasion of Rafah

Israel expects to continue a full-scale military operation in Gaza for six to eight weeks as it prepares for a ground invasion of Rafah, the enclave’s southernmost city, four officials familiar with the strategy said.

Two Israeli officials and two regional officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the military chiefs believed they could severely damage Hamas’ remaining capabilities during this period, paving the way for a shift to a lower-intensity phase of targeted airstrikes and special forces operations. Flat road. Speak freely.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and negotiator for the first and second Palestinian intifadas in the 1980s and 2000s, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was unlikely to listen Rafa’s ground attack was canceled due to international criticism. .

He added: “Rafa is the last bastion of Hamas control and Israel must dismantle Rafah’s battalion to achieve its goals in this war.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is planning operations in Rafah targeting Hamas fighters, command centers and tunnels, Defense Minister Yoav Galante said on Friday, but gave no timetable for the operation. He stressed that “extraordinary measures” were being taken to avoid civilian casualties.

“There are 24 regional battalions in Gaza, and we have disbanded 18 of them,” he told a media briefing. “Now, Rafah is the next Hamas center of gravity.”

World leaders fear a humanitarian disaster.

Trapped between the two sworn enemies are more than a million Palestinian civilians, who have crammed into the city on the Egyptian border with nowhere to escape after fleeing an Israeli attack that left the flight Much of the land was in ruins.

In a week of high diplomatic tensions, U.S. President Joe Biden twice called the Israeli leader to warn him against launching a military operation in Rafah without a credible plan to ensure the safety of civilians. Netanyahu himself said civilians would be allowed to leave the war zone before the offensive, although he vowed “total victory”.

The IDF has yet to explain how it will move more than a million people amid the ruins of the enclave.

Gazans may be screened to clear out any Hamas militants before being sent north, according to an Israeli security source and an international aid official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Another Israeli source said Israel may also build a floating dock north of Rafah to allow international aid and hospital ships to arrive by sea.

Still, an Israeli defense official said Palestinians would not be allowed to return to northern Gaza en masse and that the bush surrounding Rafah would become an option for makeshift tent cities. Regional officials also said it was unsafe to move large numbers of people to the northern region, which has no electricity or running water and has not yet been cleared of unexploded ordnance.

Several officials familiar with conversations between the two governments said Washington doubts Israel is fully prepared for a safe civilian evacuation. Biden said on Friday that he did not expect a “large-scale” ground invasion of Israel anytime soon.

Furthermore, Hamas says the total victory promised by Netanyahu will not be quick or easy.

A Hamas official in Qatar told Reuters the group estimated it had lost 6,000 fighters in the four-month conflict, half of the 12,000 Israel said were killed.

The official, who requested anonymity, said the Gaza ruling group could continue fighting and be prepared for a protracted war in Rafah and Gaza.

“Netanyahu’s choice is difficult, and so are ours. He can capture Gaza, but Hamas is still fighting. He has not yet achieved his goal of killing the Hamas leadership or wiping out Hamas,” he added.

“There is no room for Rafa”

On October 7 last year, Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, triggering a conflict that killed 1,200 people and took 253 hostages. The surprise attack triggered a massive Israeli retaliatory bombing and ground invasion that killed more than 28,000 Palestinians.

Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble by Israel. Fighting continues in the southern city of Khan Younis, with sporadic clashes still breaking out in northern areas that have been said to have been cleared.

More than 85% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are homeless. Most of the displaced people have sought refuge in Rafah, which had a pre-war population of approximately 300,000.

Emad Joudat, 55, who fled to Rafah with his family early, said: “There is no open space in Rafah, more than 1.5 million people are here. Does the whole world know? If the tanks open Come in and there will be massacre.” During the war, he ran a furniture business in Gaza City.

“I’m responsible for a big family,” said the father of five, who lives in a tent city in Rafah without food and water. “I feel helpless because if Israel launches an invasion, I don’t know where to go with them.”

Egypt has sealed its borders with the enclave. Cairo views its action against the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza as part of a broader Arab pushback against a repeat of the “catastrophe” when 700,000 Palestinians fled or were forced from their homes during the 1948 war that founded the state of Israel. .

Egypt is preparing a border area that can accommodate Palestinians as a contingency measure in case an Israeli offensive on Rafah causes Palestinians to cross the border, three Egyptian security sources told Reuters. The source declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The Egyptian government denies making any such preparations.

Israeli Defense Minister Galante said Israel had no intention of evacuating Palestinian civilians to Egypt.

“Commitment to the Sacred Victims”

Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and negotiator, said the Israeli attack on Rafah could be delayed if Hamas makes concessions in hostage negotiations and hands over the prisoners it took on October 7.

“Even this would only delay the advance on Rafah unless the demilitarization of the city and the surrender of the Hamas camp are simultaneously achieved,” he added.

A senior regional security official said Israel believed some Hamas commanders and hostages were in Rafah.

This month, after weeks of negotiations, Hamas proposed a 4-1/2-month ceasefire during which all Israeli hostages would be released, Israel would withdraw its troops from Gaza and an agreement would be reached to end the war.

Netanyahu rejected the proposal, calling it “delusional.” A new round of truce talks between the United States, Egypt, Israel and Qatar ended in Cairo on Tuesday without a breakthrough.

Senior U.S. officials believe a deal to release remaining hostages in exchange for an extended lull in the conflict is the best way to create space for broader negotiations, U.S. sources said. But they added they feared such a deal might not materialize in the coming weeks and that the war would continue into the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in March and April, which could intensify global criticism of Israel’s actions.

An overarching agreement to end the conflict appears elusive.

Any attempt to form a post-war government in Gaza will only succeed if it has the approval of Hamas, according to multiple sources in the region, including those from the extremist group and the Palestinian Authority, which was seized by Hamas in 2007. Mas was expelled from Gaza.

But something has to give.

Israel vows to destroy Hamas. The group’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will fight to the death rather than surrender or go into exile, according to Hamas and regional officials.

Despite U.S. pressure and international outcry over the suffering of civilians in Gaza and the lack of progress toward a lasting peace solution, Israel remains opposed to any deal involving a permanent ceasefire or the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Since October, US Secretary of State Blinken has visited the region five times. Last month, the U.S. State Department said Washington was “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state” that would provide security for Israel and explore options with partners in the region.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron also told MPs that the UK and its allies “will consider the issue of recognition of a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations”.

Unlike nearly 140 other United Nations countries, Israel, the United States and Britain have not officially recognized Palestine.

Yet for Netanyahu and many other Israeli officials, talking about a two-state solution amounts to betraying the victims of October 7.

“I make it clear to anyone who is still stuck on October 6: We will never help create a Palestinian state,” Israeli Culture Minister Miki Zohar said on social media last month. “This is our commitment to the victims of sacred murder.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)