First look at 49ers vs. Chiefs: Early Super Bowl picks, big questions and matchups to know

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are officially headed to Super Bowl VIII, which kicks off on Sunday, February 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.With just two weeks to go until the big day, we’re getting an early look at what you can expect from the game. Stephen Holder gives the need-to-know information, and our NFL Nation reporters Nick Wagoner and Adam Teicher take a closer look at each team. Seth Walder crunches the numbers to give you some key stats you need to know, Matt Bowen digs into the game plan for a key matchup, and Eric Mu Eric Moody proposed an X factor. Aaron Schatz answers the big questions about the final game of the season and Jason Reed discusses the quarterback matchup. Let’s take a closer look

49ers | Chiefs | Key Stats
Match Key | Big Question
Quarterback | Betting

when: Airs Sunday, February 11 at 6:30 PM ET on CBS
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas | Tickets
Open line: Select them (O/U 47.5)

Few teams are more synonymous with the Super Bowl than the Chiefs and 49ers. Kansas City is heading to its sixth Super Bowl appearance, including an impressive fourth in the past five seasons. If this isn’t a dynasty, what is? For the 49ers, this is their eighth Super Bowl appearance but a chance to win their first since 1994.

The Chiefs’ Super Bowl LIV victory at the end of the 2019 season provided a chance for immortality for everyone involved. But more specifically, it gives the Chiefs a chance to move forward, which is rare in the NFL. Winning back-to-back Super Bowls has proven difficult, but the Chiefs achieved the feat for the first time since the Patriots did it nearly two decades ago in the 2003-04 season. Meanwhile, quarterback Patrick Mahomes became the youngest quarterback to start his fourth Super Bowl and coach Andy Reid is preparing for his fifth, trailing only Bill Belichick (9) and Don Shula (6).

It’s a chance to finally break through for the Niners, who have advanced to the NFL championship game seven times since 2011 but never won a Super Bowl. As great as this team has always been, the reality is that it’s been 29 seasons since the 49ers last won a championship (with Steve Young winning MVP in Super Bowl XXIX). Brock Purdy is no Steve Young, but winning his first Super Bowl would be a big first step for the young 49ers quarterback. – Holder

Regular season: 12-5 | NFC seed: number 1

Reasons for hope: Experienced star power. No team in football has more stars than the Niners. They had a league-high nine players selected to the Pro Bowl, another 12 players were selected as backups, and seven players earned first- or second-team All-Pro honors. What’s more, the Niners have a ton of players and coaches who have been involved in deep playoff runs, including eight players who played meaningful games in Super Bowl LIV. The Niners looked like a formidable team when they came back, winning their 12 regular-season games by an average of 19 points, which ranked second in the league.

Reasons for concern: Recent History. The 49ers don’t have fond memories of playing the Chiefs on the big stage. The Niners lost to the Chiefs in their last Super Bowl four years ago. Although the Niners haven’t played the Chiefs since October 23, 2022, they lost by 3 touchdowns that day and have never beaten Kansas City without Mahomes at quarterback Team. Theoretically, none of this will stop the Niners from turning things around, but it’s worth mentioning that the Chiefs were just a bad game for them. –Wagner

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Regular season: 11-6 | AFC seeds: third place

Reasons for hope: They have Mahomes, who is having his best season in the playoffs. Over the past six playoff games, Mahomes has completed 70 percent of his passes, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt and thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception. The rest of the offense has also shown signs of life recently. They got more big plays and had a season-high eight plays of 20 yards or more in a divisional round win over the Bills.

Reasons for concern: The offensive play is sloppy. The Chiefs led the league in pass breakups during the regular season, were second in offensive penalties and tied for seventh in turnovers. Despite their sloppiness, they still won in the playoffs. In their wild-card win over the Dolphins, they fumbled a pass in the red zone, missed a shotgun attempt and converted a touchdown penalty on three different drives, leading to a field goal. Mecole Hardman Jr.’s goal-line fumble in the divisional round kept the Bills chasing points. How long can the Chiefs continue to beat good teams with this style of play? —— Teicher

Statistics to know

San Francisco’s abundance of playmakers was a big reason why the team not only made it to the Super Bowl, but had the best offense all season long. ESPN’s Receiver Tracking Metrics Displayed dominance as each of their top targets topped their position in at least one category. Brandon Aiyuk leads all receivers in catches (96) and total points (98), Deebo Samuel leads all receivers in YAC points (83), and George Kittle leads all tight ends in total points (84) tight end, while Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs in sacks (99). Maybe the defense can take away one of them, but it’s nearly impossible to stop them all.

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In 2023, Mahomes posted the worst regular season numbers of his career, ranking 19th in QBR in pass attempts. So how did the Chiefs get to the Super Bowl? Well, throwing is just part of the way Mahomes impacts the offense. In 2023, playing against the worst receiving corps in the league in terms of RTM receiving grade, Mahomes excelled in other types of games. He avoided sacks (second in sack rate, behind Josh Allen) and was incredible at rushing the ball (second in EPA tackle rate, again behind Allen). Of course, Kansas City’s high-end defense also makes all the difference. ——Wald

inside the game

Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton vs. 49ers linebacker Christian McCaffrey

The running game is a fundamental part of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, so I’m focusing on Bolton’s ability to limit McCaffrey in early situations. Bolton were quick on the ball and diagnosed, and played at an edge-of-the-edge speed. This is a key factor against the 49ers, who will use their formation and movement to gain numerical advantage for the opposing team. McCaffrey is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season and has 44 carries of 10 yards or more. He made this offense disappear. ——Bowen

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X-Factor: Isiah Pacheco, running back, Chiefs

Pacheco has become the undisputed leader of the Chiefs backfield, and his workload reflects that. In six career playoff games, he averaged 18.7 touches and 90.5 total yards. The 49ers defense is widely considered to be the best in the league. But on the road to the Super Bowl, they gave up a lot of rushing yards to running backs like Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs. Pacheco is the second Chiefs player to rush for a touchdown in four consecutive postseason games. Behind the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has been stellar this postseason, he could continue that form against the 49ers. ——Moody’s

Answer the big questions

What’s the biggest difference with Steve Wilkes as 49ers defensive coordinator?

The difference with the 49ers defense this season is that they’re having greater trouble stopping the run. The 49ers ranked 15th in regular-season run defense DVOA after ranking second and first the previous two seasons.

The biggest issue is stopping the run downfield, not stopping the run downfield. The 49ers’ run-stop rate was the same as last season at 32%. However, in 2022, the 49ers are the NFL’s best defense against the run in the secondary (5-10 yards) and the run in the open field (11 yards or more). This season, they rank seventh and 21st in those two categories, respectively.

One problem the 49ers had against the run last season was too little yardage. They converted 71% of those runs (on third down, fourth down or with 1-2 yards left at the goal line). This season, they have a 79% conversion rate on those runs.

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Is Travis Kelce taking a step back from his Hall of Fame regular-season performance?

Yes, that’s right. But he hasn’t taken 20 steps back to “average tight end” territory yet. While his performance couldn’t match his previous stellar performance, he’s still one of the best in the business.

This season, I introduced a new version of the Receive DYAR metric that is based on routes rather than targets. It does a better job of evaluating a receiver’s ability to consistently get open and draw targets. Kelce leads the NFL in rushing yards in 2022, leading backups with 642 yards. No other tight end topped 450. This season, Kelce leads the league again, but only with 399 DYAR. Kittle was next with 395.

ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics tell a similar story for the 2023 season, albeit smaller, but still strong. Last season, Kelce ranked second behind Kittle with 75 RTM points. This season, Kelce dropped to seventh place with an RTM of 58 points. His open score and YAC score dropped slightly, and his receiving score dropped significantly.

We always expected Kelce to see some decline this season. The man is 34 years old this year! He just set the record for receiving yards by a tight end age 34 or older with 984 yards. Tony Gonzalez is the only tight end in his age group with at least 850 receiving yards. (He did it three times.)

However, so far in the 2023 playoffs, Kelce has caught 16 of 17 targets for 191 yards and three touchdowns. This is certainly better than what he performed during the regular season. ——Schatz

quarterback duel

Purdy vs Mahomes

Purdy was selected by the 49ers with the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, becoming the draft’s “Mr. Irrelevant.” But Purdy is far from irrelevant to the 49ers. He was extremely efficient, sometimes astonishing, in directing the offense. With only 26 career starts (including playoffs), Purdy has a record of 21 wins and 5 losses. That’s an impressive .808 winning percentage. Purdy quickly earned the trust of coach Kyle Shanahan and the team’s many talented offensive playmakers by making smart decisions with the football. In the NFC Championship Game, with the 49ers trailing the Lions by 17 points at halftime, Purdy kept his composure and led the 49ers to an impressive comeback victory that put them in contention for the second time in five seasons. Return to the Super Bowl.

Already an all-time great, Mahomes will try to become the fifth quarterback in NFL history to win at least three Super Bowl titles, joining Tom Brady (six), Joe Montana (four times), Terry Bradshaw (four times) and Troy Aikman (three). Mahomes, Brady, Peyton Manning and Montana are the only quarterbacks to win at least two Super Bowl championships and two AP MVP awards. The Chiefs are in the AFC Championship Game for the sixth consecutive season with Mahomes as the starting signal-caller. The only longer streak is the New England Patriots’ eight-game winning streak from 2011-18. ——Reed

Betting on gold nuggets

The Chiefs are the ninth team in the past 20 seasons to win upsets in the divisional round and conference championship game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, six of the first eight went on to win a Super Bowl. Overall, the Chiefs are 12-8 this season, while the 49ers are 9-10. Since 2001, underdogs are 11-11 ATS and 15-7 ATS in Super Bowls.