China prepares for annual legislative session amid economic headwinds

Thousands of China’s political elite and lawmakers will gather in Beijing this week to kick off the country’s annual legislative session, known as the Two Sessions.

The meetings, which traditionally preview the Chinese government’s policy agenda for the year, will begin with the annual session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference on March 4, followed by the annual legislative session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament on May 5, China’s State Council Prime Minister Li Qiang will make his first government work report.

Amid last year’s economic downturn and political turmoil within the Chinese Communist Party, some analysts said this year’s meeting would highlight Beijing’s response to economic challenges, a possible emphasis on national security and rhetoric on cross-strait relations and development. Possible personnel appointments.

“In the face of continued economic difficulties, [Chinese Communist Party] Whether the leadership can exert its efforts through the two sessions, build a certain consensus within the party, and propose realistic policy goals will become an important benchmark for measuring the degree of centripetal force within the party. “The Australian National University told VOA by phone.

economic challenges

Since canceling its “zero COVID-19” strategy at the end of 2022, China has faced various economic challenges, including debt defaults by real estate developers, record-high youth unemployment, sluggish consumer and household confidence, and weak overseas demand.

China’s stock market fell to a five-year low last month as 2024 begins following a sluggish economic performance last year. China’s two largest debt-laden property developers – Evergrande and Country Garden – face more challenges: One has received a liquidation order and the other has received a liquidation application.

Against this backdrop, some experts say Beijing is unlikely to launch economic structural reforms during the two sessions.

“I’m skeptical that Beijing will move forward with bolder economic reforms,” ​​Dexter Roberts, director of China affairs at the University of Montana’s Mansfield Center, told VOA by phone.

While senior Chinese officials have spoken over the past decade about the need for economic reform, Roberts said China’s top leadership, particularly President Xi Jinping, “does not believe in loosening controls on the economy” and that this is what China needs to address ongoing issues. problems. economic challenges.

Roberts and other analysts believe Beijing will try to emphasize two economic concepts repeated by top Chinese officials, including Xi Jinping, last year: high-quality development and new productivity, which refers to a growth model that relies less on large-scale stimulus measures and more Focus on “innovation”.

“High-quality development is synonymous with accepting lower growth while seeking new economic drivers such as new innovative technologies,” Roberts told VOA. “I don’t expect them to launch large-scale stimulus measures during the two sessions.”

Politburo, the highest decision-making bodySaid it would rely on more fiscal tools to support the sluggish economy. The 24-member political body vowed to create a “stable, transparent and predictable policy environment” by strengthening fiscal policy and ensuring monetary policy remains “flexible, proportionate and precise”.

Despite facing economic headwinds, Roberts said he expected China to target economic growth of 5% in 2024. “[Since] 26 largest cities [in China] An economic growth target of just over 5% has been set for 2024, suggesting that the figure at the national level will also be around 5%. “

National Security

Some observers said that national security will still be an important theme of this year’s two sessions.Earlier this week, members of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passed Amendment to the Law on Keeping State Secretswhich expands the scope of information considered a national security risk.

“Xi Jinping has been promoting a governance model that prioritizes national security, so although economic policy will be one of the main focuses of this year’s two sessions, the Chinese government will still mention security and coordinated development,” said research expert Wang Xinxian. A professor of Chinese politics at National Chengchi University in Taiwan told VOA in a telephone interview.

He said China’s Ministry of State Security has become more involved in issues that may not be their primary concern over the past few months, suggesting their powers may have expanded in recent years.

Some analysts say security now overshadows other aspects of China’s governance. “Security now takes precedence over other issues, including economics and diplomacy,” Alfred Ng, an expert on Chinese politics at the National University of Singapore, told VOA by phone.

Cross-Strait stance

Some observers said that since Taiwan’s new government will take office in May, it is very important to pay attention to China’s stance and remarks on cross-strait relations during the two sessions. In recent months, Beijing has repeatedly characterized the president-elect as a separatist and vowed to “resolutely crack down” on Taiwan independence activities.

“We need to pay attention to how Chinese leaders talk about the Taiwan issue in the government work report, and whether Beijing decides to amend the Anti-Secession Law, which means using non-peaceful means against Taiwan,” Wang told reporters in Taiwan, Voice of America.

He said Beijing was unlikely to introduce new policies and measures on cross-strait relations.

With former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang officially resigning as a member of the Legislative Council on Wednesday, experts said Beijing is expected to appoint a new foreign minister during the two sessions.

Liu Jianchao, the Chinese Communist Party’s international liaison, is widely expected to take the post.

Roberts described Liu He as charismatic, who spoke good English, and said he was the “right person” to be China’s next foreign minister.

“[Since] Xi Jinping seems to have decided that Sino-US relations need to improve, [Liu’s appointment] It could be good for U.S.-China relations,” he said.