BJP may get 350 seats, 5 in Tamil Nadu, top economist Surjit Bhalla talks to NDTV

New Delhi:

The BJP is likely to perform better this time than it did in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, a top economist and psychologist told New Delhi TV today.

Surjit Bhalla, whose new book “How We Vote” details the voter mindset, told NDTV that the BJP is likely to get between 330 and 350 seats.

“Based on the statistical likelihood, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. That’s just the BJP and not its alliance partners,” said Mr. Bhalla, who agreed that the contesting party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi might You’ll see an increase of 5% to 7% in seats won compared to the 2019 results.

“This could be a wave election. Every election has the potential (to be a wave). But it may not be a wave election,” said the economist, who has tracked Indian elections for four decades.

As for the opposition Congress, Mr. Bhalla said the party could get 44 seats, 2 percent less than it won in the 2014 election, the year Prime Minister Narendra Modi became prime minister.

“The problem with the (opposition) alliance is the leadership. Economy is most important, leadership second. And they all support the BJP. If the opposition chooses a leader who may have mass appeal or is close to it,” Mr Bhalla told New Delhi TV “If Prime Minister Modi is even half as attractive, then I think it could be a contest.”

He predicted that the BJP could win at least five seats in Tamil Nadu, where it has traditionally been a weak party. “I would not be surprised if the BJP gets more than five seats in Tamil Nadu of all places. In Kerala, maybe one or two,” Mr. Bhalla said.

He attributed this possibility to improvements in people’s living conditions. “India votes based on how well people’s lives have improved. That’s the basic premise. It’s not caste, it’s not gender, it’s not the various factors that people attribute, but that’s exactly what Bill Clinton said in 1992,” It’s the economy, stupid,” Mr. Barra said.

“What we are saying is that because life has improved significantly, according to the old definition of poverty, 1%, or 14 million people, are poor. Look, we have developed, per capita consumption has increased, life has improved, so we have to improve The poverty rate is in the sense that maybe a quarter of the population is now relatively poor and no longer absolutely poor,” the economist told New Delhi TV.

“The poor will always be with us. The rich will always be with us. It depends on how you define who is poor, we use the World Bank definition which is $1.9 per person per day. We say it should be doubled because life and improvement in the economy,” Mr. Bala said.

He dismissed data from the think tank Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) as unreliable and accused the opposition parties of selectively using CMIE data to target the BJP during the election season.

“Around the world, the opposition always says inflation is high and there are too few jobs. But in India, for example, the unemployment rate is lower than in 2019,” Mr. Bhalla said.

“I’m not the only one who has raised doubts about the (CMIE) data. Several authors have raised doubts. They say there are fewer women in the Indian labor market today than in Yemen and Iraq, less than 10%? That’s what I thought The point being made is this is ridiculous. Why is it being endorsed? Because I think the CMIE data is some of the most untrustworthy that has ever been published in the world.”

The second phase of Lok Sabha elections will be held on April 26, while the remaining elections will be held in May. Counting will take place on June 4.