Rishi Sunak hopes three key moments this week can reverse his plummeting standing within the party.

The Prime Minister hopes that Monday’s economic speech, an end-of-term speech before Conservative MPs on Wednesday and new inflation data released that day, which is likely to be close to the Bank of England’s 2% target, will prevent his premiership from bleeding.

this Politics on the Jack and Sam Podcast A wide-ranging inquiry into the main factions and wings of the Conservative Party has uncovered misery and desperation and renewed talk of changing leaders if things don’t improve.

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While senior figures still believe the ratio is still below 50%, there is widespread discussion that it could rise again if the party performs poorly in the May 2 local elections.

In addition to existing unease among red wall MPs, Sunak has also lost some goodwill and support from the One Nation bloc of moderate MPs.

This is especially true after processing Campaign dispute involving Tory megadonor Frank Hurstalthough it is also a result Lack of impact on budget and Lee Anderson’s defection It also contributed to changes in mood.

One One Nation Conservative source said: “Previously, apart from die-hard Borisites and Rustites, the party thought it would be ridiculous to have another leadership change in parliament. The stagnant polls have undermined that feeling. “

“Indeed, if you can find someone who can be appointed leader at the coronation rather than at the election, it might be worth saving 50-100 seats.”

The Commons leader and two-time leadership contender appears to fit the bill of several different sections of the Conservative parliamentary party. Penny Mordaunt.

Some on the right say she could be their compromise candidate because she supports Brexit, performs well in the House of Commons and will run a “balanced” government after Sunak.

One 2019 Conservative MP told me on the podcast that they had received spontaneous constituency letters saying “Thank God Penny is running” and “I hope she is the future of the party”.

However, one source said she believed it was impossible to change the leader without a contest and believed an immediate general election would have to be called if Sunak stepped down, making the job much less attractive.

Tory MPs will spend much of Monday in a divided hall voting to reject amendments inserted into the Rwanda Bill by the House of Lords, and we at Jack and Sam’s Politics say the mood will be better afterwards. podcast.