One of the most intense weeks in the decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel came to an easy end on Friday after Tehran claimed to have defeated a small-scale Israeli drone attack on its territory.

Although Israel did not officially claim the attack, temporarily avoiding triggering a new escalation, there is no denying that this tit-for-tat confrontation ushered in a new era in which the two opponents appear more willing to engage in direct combat. rather than through an agent. Government officials and experts fear this could lead to open war.

“This past week has been a game-changer,” said Suzanne Maloney, a former State Department official who is now an associate dean at the Brookings Institution. Iran’s massive missile attack on Israel six days ago “changed the nature of this conflict, and although the Israeli response was very, very targeted, I don’t think that will change,” she said. “The baseline for escalation is going to be Much higher.”

Oil prices retreated on Friday, with markets appearing relatively calm after it became clear that a blow to Iran would be far more limited than initially feared. Publicly, Israel’s allies were pleased that Friday’s attack was so small, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected calls for them not to retaliate at all as Israel nearly silenced Iran over the weekend Unprecedented missile attack.

Yet the calm masks deeper unease among U.S. and foreign officials. A senior European official warned that the situation remains very tense and there is no guarantee that a new conflict between Iran and Israel can be contained if another conflict breaks out in the coming days.

A survey by Oxford Economics showed business concerns about the situation surged this week to their highest level since the Oct. 7 attacks.

Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said: “If there is a serious escalation – which would mean a broader regional escalation than what we have seen so far – then , we could be in for a serious oil crisis,” Bloomberg TV. “But we’re not there yet.”

But at this week’s International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Washington, some officials worried that their colleagues were denying the risk that the conflict could spread further. However, they did not want to be named to question the public line.

One of the big questions now is whether Netanyahu’s government will feel the need to continue attacking Iran and its assets elsewhere. The latest clashes followed an April 1 missile attack on a diplomatic compound in Damascus that killed an Iranian military commander. Tehran blamed Israel, but Israel has not confirmed responsibility.

Iran has made it clear that it is prepared to do something it has never dared to do before: launch hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel from its own territory. Although many of the weapons failed, Israel still needed help from the United States and Britain to quell the attacks. This sends an ominous message: Israel cannot repel the invasion alone.

The United States went to great lengths to convince Netanyahu to “win” and refused to respond. Given the limited nature of Thursday night’s attack, he may have been listening, at least for now. Yet Netanyahu has also shown a habit of ignoring the United States in the past.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the ongoing war in Gaza. The war began after Israel launched an attack on October 7 that killed about 1,200 people. According to Hamas, the Israeli army’s retaliatory actions have killed more than 30,000 people, and Israel has been severely criticized by other countries around the world.

Iran’s missile strikes have deflected some concerns, but an impending attack on the Gaza city of Rafah, next on Israel’s target list, could reignite them. Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations have reached an impasse. Even Qatar, a longtime mediator, said this week it was reassessing that role.

Calls for restraint are not limited to Israel’s allies. Russia welcomed this week’s limited back-and-forth as evidence that neither side wanted the situation to escalate. But even if well-crafted attacks cause relatively little damage, they send an ominous signal.

Explosion in Isfahan, central Iran
Norman Ruhr, a former senior U.S. intelligence official, told Bloomberg TV: “This is a new Middle East where Israel has to wonder every day whether certain actions might trigger an Iranian missile attack on Israeli territory or not. Direct attack by man and machine.”

One of the points raised by diplomats in Tel Aviv in an effort to temper Israel’s expected response to last week’s Iranian attack was the potential for an overall escalation of hostilities along the border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah is Tehran’s main proxy asset and operates across the border. , according to a senior Western official.

Italian Foreign Minister Tajani, who serves as the rotating chairman of the G7 this year, also publicly mentioned Lebanon as a key point to resolve confrontation many times at the Capri Foreign Ministers’ Summit. “Israel should start listening to us and heeding the G7’s calls,” he said this week.

“With Iran and Israel directly attacking each other, the risk of a broader war has risen,” Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud wrote in a report. “This may be intentional — through violence. Whatever the cause, the impact on the global economy will be huge.”

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)