Washington——

The frozen military conflict between Ukraine and Russia is beginning to thaw and could become more serious if the United States does not provide additional military assistance quickly, a top U.S. intelligence official said in a grim assessment delivered to U.S. lawmakers. would be tilted in favor of Moscow.

Monday’s warning comes nearly a month after the U.S. Senate voted in favor of a separate foreign aid bill that would provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine as it tries to hold on to territorial gains more than two years after an incursion by Russian troops.

But House lawmakers refused to bring the bill to a vote, leaving other Western countries scrambling to provide Ukraine with enough weapons and ammunition to fend off a new Russian offensive.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee that the $60 billion is “absolutely critical to Ukraine’s current defense.”

She said: “Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdievka, and the efforts over the past few weeks to avoid further territorial losses, have exposed the erosion of Ukraine’s military capabilities as a result of declining external military assistance. It is difficult to imagine without this assistance How will Ukraine be able to maintain the extremely hard-fought progress it has made against Russia?”

The CIA director told lawmakers the war is at a crossroads and what happens next may depend on whether the United States provides aid.

William Burns of the CIA said: “The Ukrainians have not lost courage and perseverance. They have simply run out of ammunition. And we have run out of time to help them.”

Both Haines and Burns reiterated previous assessments: Ukrainian forces have so far inflicted serious damage on Russian forces.

U.S. officials believe at least 315,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded and two-thirds of Russia’s pre-war tank inventory had been destroyed. The Russian military, which has been undergoing a modernization program, has been set back for years.

Russia’s invasion also galvanized the West, with Sweden and Finland joining the NATO military alliance.

But Haines and Burns told lawmakers that none of these strategic failures changed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculations.

“Putin continues to think time is on his side,” Haines said, warning that the Russian leader was as entrenched as ever.

“He continues to believe that NATO expansion and Western support for Ukraine reinforce his long-held belief that the United States and Europe are trying to limit Russian power and weaken him,” she said. She told lawmakers that Putin responded by continuing to work toward development. The Russian military has invested more money in ammunition production and the purchase of military supplies from Iran and North Korea.

U.S. intelligence officials also see signs that Putin is continuing plans to modernize and strengthen Russia’s nuclear weapons arsenal, already considered the largest and most diverse in the world.

There are signs that Russia is willing to seize opportunities to gain an advantage.

“We remain concerned that Moscow will jeopardize long-standing global norms against the use of asymmetric or strategically destabilizing weapons, including in space and cyber domains,” Haines said.

Some lawmakers have echoed these concerns, urging colleagues to pass legislation to provide Ukraine with needed military supplies.

“I’m concerned that the House’s decision so far not to even adopt legislation to support Ukraine’s efforts to counter Putin’s aggression is one of the most short-sighted decisions I can imagine on a national security issue,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark D. Warner said.

“The implications and long-term consequences of us abandoning Ukraine… it’s a mistake that will haunt this country for 50 years,” independent senator Angus King added.

U.S. intelligence officials have warned that if additional aid to Ukraine fails to materialize, there will be ripple effects around the world.

“The consequences of this would not just affect Ukrainian or European security, but the entire Indo-Pacific region,” said the CIA’s Burns. “If we were thought to be withdrawing from Ukraine, it would not only raise suspicions.” Allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, which will fuel Chinese leadership’s ambitions in contingencies from Taiwan to the South China Sea. “

Intelligence officials say that while China remains wary, it is now being encouraged by Russia.

In particular, intelligence officials said Russia was forced to make some long-sought concessions to China in exchange for Moscow’s support for the war in Ukraine.

Iran and North Korea also benefited, they said, warning that the impact remained to be seen.

Changing dynamics “have the potential to undermine long-standing nonproliferation norms, among other things,” Haines said.

But she added that while Russia, China, Iran and North Korea were growing closer, prospects for a true alliance were, for now, remote.

“Narrow interests, a desire to avoid entanglement, and a weariness with the harm and instability caused by each other’s behavior may limit their cooperation… unless there is no direct relationship between one of these countries and the United States,” Haines said. conflict.”

Israel – Gaza

U.S. intelligence officials have also expressed concern about the ongoing conflict in Gaza, where Israeli forces continue to hunt fighters for the Hamas terror group despite warnings from the United Nations and aid groups about its devastating impact on civilians.

Asked about current efforts to achieve a temporary ceasefire, the CIA’s Burns told lawmakers: “We’re going to continue to work on that — I don’t think anyone can guarantee success.”

Byrne recently traveled to the Middle East to meet with officials from Israel, Egypt and Qatar.

He said the deal currently under consideration would provide for the return of some 40 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, most of whom are injured or sick women or elderly men, in exchange for a six-week ceasefire that would allow the U.S. and its allies to vigorously provide much-needed assistance.

“I understand Israel’s needs, President [Joe Biden] This was emphasized in response to the brutal attack on Israelis on October 7 [by Hamas]”, Burns told Republican Sen. Tom Cotton.

“But I think we all have to be mindful of the huge toll this is taking on innocent civilians in Gaza,” he added.

Gaza aftermath

Haines further warned lawmakers that the crisis in Gaza “has triggered violence by a range of actors” and that “the conflict in Gaza could have intergenerational consequences for terrorism.”

But for now, Haines said, Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah appear unwilling to go overboard to manipulate the fighting in their own interests.

“We continue to assess that Hezbollah and Iran do not want to escalate the conflict and drag us or them into an all-out war,” she said.

Still, Haines acknowledged that other Iran-linked groups, such as Yemen’s Houthis, have become “aggressors” and have launched dozens of attacks on international shipping.