Ukraine scrambles to prepare trenches and defense lines for impending Russian offensive

Ukrainian troops are scrambling to bolster frontline defenses ahead of an expected Russian offensive, with Kiev criticized for moving too slowly.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that construction was progressing smoothly, as images emerged of troops digging trenches and installing defenses similar to those used by Russia to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive last year.

The president said on the messaging app Telegram that building defenses covering a 2,000-kilometer frontline was a “huge task.” “But the pace is good now. I hope it can be finished in time.”

Prime Minister Denis Shmihal said last month that work was underway On a “24/7” basisallocating over £400 million to the task.

But military sources and analysts expressed frustration that work began too late, leading to losses on the eastern front, and feared Russia could further exploit weaknesses and mass troops for new attacks.

Last month, Russia made its most significant advance in months by seizing the city of Avdiivka, and has since laid claim to a series of smaller villages.

Ukrainian military journalist Yuri Butusov said weak defenses were one of the reasons for the losses. “I saw our soldiers being attacked by Russian drones and being fired upon by mortars in their dugouts in the middle of the battlefield,” he said. “It was very painful to watch.”

Mykola Bereskov, an adviser to Ukraine’s military leadership at the Institute for National Strategic Studies in Kyiv, said work on the defense lines was picking up pace but more ammunition was needed to protect them.

“People are now taking this task seriously. A classic three-line defense is being established,” he said. “As Russia demonstrated in the summer of 2023, defense in depth reinforced with obstacles can only work if supported by appropriate firepower.

“Pipe artillery and rocket launchers are an integral part of active defense. Obstacles plus defense in depth alone will not work.”

Testing may be coming soon.Zelensky says Russia may launch new offensive already possiblewhile independent analysts believe a summer attack is more likely as weather conditions improve and Moscow continues to build up its forces.

Last month, Russia had about 470,000 troops in Ukraine, up from 360,000 at the start of the war. According to Ukraine’s assessment, and this number is thought to be growing steadily. Russia has also expanded military production and imports from allies including North Korea to secure a significant ammunition advantage as Ukrainian suppliers falter.

Bereskov believes that Russia will need more time to prepare for the offensive, which will provide Ukraine with a window to strengthen its defenses.

“There is talk of a new Russian offensive in the summer, for which another massive mobilization will be needed,” he said. “I think we have at least two to three months left.”

But Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst at consultancy Rochan and a frequent visitor to Frontline, said the process was too slow.

“It is clear that the fortification work began too late,” he said. “They could have started construction in December, but the whole process should have started by the end of October.”

Muzika said Ukraine’s military leadership failed to foresee the need to strengthen defenses after the counteroffensive failed last summer, which also led to shortages of ammunition and manpower.

Some analysts believe Kiev has been slow to shift toward a defensive posture in part because of a reluctance to allow Russia a propaganda victory.Ukraine’s allies, including Britain, are said to be trying to convince Mr Zelensky focus on defense and abandon high-risk offensive plans that could theoretically regain the initiative.

Muzika added that Ukraine’s defenses also face different challenges than Russia’s.

“The Ukrainian army does not have dedicated units responsible for building fortifications at the operational level…which means Ukraine must rely heavily on private companies to do this work,” he said.

Another issue is ensuring the use of private land to build defences, with owner consent, involves “a lot of paperwork and bureaucracy”, the analyst said.

The pace of progress is difficult to gauge, in part because Ukrainian and military analysts are wary of providing information to Russia.

A recent assessment by Finnish open-source investigative firm Blackbird Group found that Ukraine’s defense capabilities are lower than the positions Russia established last year to repel a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“New positions are being prepared, but they have not yet formed a particularly strong line of defense.” said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at Black Bird Group. New York Times earlier this month.

Muzyka said Ukraine faces huge engineering challenges in trying to make up for lost time. He said spring rains and mud would make it more difficult to form strong positions, while the length of the front line would force Ukraine to prioritize certain areas.

“I don’t think they can make up for these months,” he said.

If Russia faces weak defenses, it may be able to make rapid progress.

“This may make it easier for Russia to move forward,” Muzica said. “We may see a situation where the Russians are able to actually capture the lines that are not yet completed. Less developed lines will not impose the same costs on Russia .”