The U.S. presidential primaries are still months away, but most questions about the final results are likely to be resolved within the next week as voters in 15 states, including the nation’s two largest states, will vote on March 5 Voters in four more states will go to the polls on March 5. Just 7 days later.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden appears well-positioned to continue his sweeping victory in the Democratic primary field, with no candidate seriously contesting his bid for the nomination for re-election.
The Republican primary has so far been dominated by former President Donald Trump, who has won all but Sunday’s primary in Washington, D.C., winning most or all of the states that voted on Super Tuesday. Including the well-represented states of Texas and California.
If Trump performs as expected on March 5, he will be on track to exceed the delegate total needed to secure the Republican nomination a week later, on March 12, when four more states vote. States and several districts have yet to vote, with a full four months until the party’s nominating convention in Milwaukee.
Surprisingly not competitive
Caitlin E. Jewitt, associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech, told VOA that the 2024 presidential primaries are very competitive. While sitting presidents rarely face serious primary challenges, Trump’s status as the Republican Party’s most recent president and his continued control of the Republican base appear to give him a similar advantage.
“We basically have an incumbent running against a quasi-incumbent, which is something that has never happened before,” Jewett said. “Normally we have competing nominations on at least one side, if not both sides. , so in many ways it makes this primary less interesting. Candidates are really looking forward to the general election earlier than usual.”
Trump also benefited from the rules of the Republican primary. In most cases, she said, Republicans award all of a state’s delegates to the candidate who gets the majority of primary votes, rather than dividing them proportionately.
“On Super Tuesday, President Trump will win the vast majority, if not all, of the delegates, thereby increasing his odds of winning the nomination,” Jewett said.
Hailey’s remains
Despite having little success winning delegates, Haley has remained in the Republican race and is now taking on the role of a protest candidate, using her campaign to argue that Trump is unfit to be president and having already lost to Biden in 2020. Once aboard, he’ll likely do it again.
As of the end of the week, Haley had received just 43 delegates to Trump’s 244. With 865 delegates on the Super Tuesday ballot, the gap is expected to widen dramatically. There are 2,429 delegates in total, meaning a candidate would need to get 1,215 to reach the top 50% and win the nomination.
Jaime Dominguez, an associate professor of political science at Northwestern University, said that despite Haley’s long odds, she could still have a significant impact on the Republican race through her continued presence.
“It looks like she’s going to stay in the game, which will be interesting because I think she’s an eyesore. [Trump’s] aside,” Dominguez told VOA. “Even though she’s no longer competitive — she can’t influence delegates — she will play an important role in terms of the campaign’s messaging around specific issues. “
Biden’s challenge from the left
On the Democratic side, President Biden has won all the primaries so far and is expected to continue to do so. However, some on the political left are increasingly trying to encourage Democratic voters to withhold support for the president in protest of his support for Israel during attacks on Gaza over the past few months.
In Michigan last week, Biden won with 81% of the vote, but 13% of voters in the Democratic primary cast their votes for “uncommitted” rather than Biden or other candidates.
“Beyond the momentum in Michigan, we need to continue to raise our voices and send a clear message to President Biden – we need a ceasefire now,” Our Revolution executive director Joseph Givarges said in a press release on Monday. release. “He will put our democracy at risk if we don’t change course.”
He said his group, along with others opposed to Biden’s support for Israel, will work to persuade Democratic voters in other states to refuse to vote for him to continue expressing their dissatisfaction with Biden’s policies.
Mainly symbolic
While protest voting will send a message to Biden during the primary, Virginia Tech’s Jewett said she doesn’t expect the movement to have an impact on how voters behave when Biden is likely to face Trump in a rematch in November. Tremendous influence.
“I think it’s symbolic now,” Jewett said. “This shows how frustrated President Biden and his administration’s Democrats are with the situation in Israel and Gaza. But we need to be careful not to read too much into it.
“Right now, with the election still seven months away, and especially if there’s a rematch between Trump and Biden (which seems likely), Democrats are likely to rally around Biden, if only because they don’t want to find another President Trump’s term,” she said.
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