Stockholm:

Sweden’s bid to join NATO in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine looks set to clear the final hurdle, with Hungary due to vote on ratification on Monday. Joining the U.S.-led coalition would mean dramatic changes for Sweden’s defense and the geopolitical balance in the region.

Why did Sweden decide to join NATO?

At the end of the Napoleonic Wars in the early 19th century, Sweden adopted an official policy of neutrality.

After the end of the Cold War, the policy of neutrality was modified into a policy of military non-alignment.

Although Sweden has sent troops on international peacekeeping missions, it has not been involved in a war for more than 200 years.

The last conflict it fought was the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814.

Although neutral, it pursues an active foreign policy, advocates human rights, is the country that provides the most aid per capita, and is sometimes labeled a “humanitarian superpower.”

However, although Sweden remains outside NATO, it has become increasingly close to the alliance, joining the Partnership for Peace in 1994 and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997.

However, a majority of Swedes have long opposed full membership, which is considered taboo in Sweden’s largest party, the Social Democrats.

Former Social Democratic Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist even announced in autumn 2021 that he could “guarantee” that he would never participate in the process of joining NATO.

Just months later, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, leading to a dramatic shift in public opinion and political parties.

An overwhelming majority of members of the Swedish parliament voted to apply for EU membership, and the country joined Finland in applying for membership in May 2022.

What does Sweden bring to NATO?

Swedish policy has long dictated that the country needs a strong military to protect its neutrality.

But after the Cold War ended, it slashed defense spending and shifted its military focus to peacekeeping operations around the world.

According to the government, defense spending accounted for 2.6% of GDP in 1990 and will shrink to 1.2% by 2020.

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, spending began to increase again.

In March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden announced that it would increase spending again, aiming to reach 2% of GDP “as soon as possible”.

At the end of 2023, the Swedish government stated that military spending in 2024 would exceed the 2% target.

The Swedish army, combining its different services, can deploy about 50,000 soldiers, about half of whom are reservists.

Its air force has more than 90 domestically produced fighter jets JAS 19 Gripen, and its Baltic navy includes several frigates and submarines.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also said in January that Sweden was ready to send troops to NATO forces in Latvia.

Sweden and Finland joining NATO would also mean the Baltic Sea is surrounded by alliance members, with some analysts calling it a NATO lake.

“This is the last piece of the puzzle in NATO’s Nordic map that is now falling into place,” Robert Dalsjo, an analyst at Sweden’s Defense Research Agency (FOI), told AFP.

What impact does this have on Swedish defence?

As a member of NATO, the country’s military calculations have changed in several key ways.

“Sweden has long worked under the assumption: ‘We will solve this task alone’,” Jan Henningsen, a researcher at the Freedom of Information Institute, told AFP.

“Now things have changed,” he added, explaining that defense now needed to be within the league.

“Now we have to learn to be a team player. We have to adapt to the fact that we are not prepared to defend only Swedish territory, but also allied territory,” Dalsjo noted.

For Sweden, joining the alliance also upends its traditional thinking about power relations in a potential conflict.

“Traditionally, we think we are a small country and the people attacking us are much bigger,” Henningsen said.

But Henningsen said that in terms of economics and demographics, “NATO is much bigger than Russia.”

“We are no longer David in every aspect, so to speak,” Henningsen said. The Swedish military has also noticed the change.

“It’s going to be a pretty impressive force, looking to assemble forces from Turkey in the south all the way to Svalbard,” Swedish Army Chief of Staff Jonny Lindfors told Dagens Nyheter in December. The power of 32 nations.”

He added that he believed the additional force would reduce the risk of conflict.

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