Paris France:

Former U.S. President George W. Bush believed he had a “soul feeling.” Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair believes he deserves a seat at the “top table”. French President Emmanuel Macron invited him for several hours of talks at his official resort residence.

For much of President Vladimir Putin’s two and a half years in power, Western leaders believed they understood the Kremlin leader’s strategy and considered Russia worthy of being an international partner.

But this approach was shattered two years ago on February 24, 2022, when Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, leaving it far in the past, like the Russian leader smiling aboard Macron’s Mediterranean fortress of Bregancon in August Photo of the steps of the mansion. In 2019, flowers were laid in honor of Brigitte, the French leader’s wife.

While Putin failed to achieve his initial goal of seizing Ukraine’s major cities in his lightning offensive that first winter, he now appears increasingly content, having repelled Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer 2023 counteroffensive and taking control of the country’s south and east key territory.

“It’s true that President Putin is confident he can outlast the West, so it’s our responsibility to show determination and prove him wrong,” said a senior Western official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Russia gains advantage”

Putin has issued increasingly optimistic rhetoric, declaring in December that Ukraine has “no future” and in an interview with controversial right-wing US talk show host Tucker Carlson on Thursday saying that a strategic defeat of Russia “is Impossible “by definition”.

Western leaders have responded by insisting that defeating Russia in the war in Ukraine is the only option, with Macron declaring last month that Europe’s priority must be “not to let Russia win”.

Analysts say only a significant increase in Western support for Ukraine as Ukraine runs out of ammunition can change the momentum.

But even that is far from certain, with U.S. lawmakers hesitant about a new aid package, Putin awaiting a possible victory by Donald Trump in this year’s U.S. presidential election, and rifts emerging in Europe.

“It’s a race on both sides to rebuild their offensive capabilities,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington.

“If Western funding is not there, if Russia gains some kind of advantage, then they have the potential to gain more,” she said.

“The momentum has shifted.”

Kendall-Taylor added that if Ukraine can hold its ground in 2024, it could put more pressure on Russia in 2025 if new resources are in place.

“From Putin’s perspective, 2024 is very critical,” she said.

Ukraine is deeply uneasy about the prospect of Trump returning to the White House, who declared in 2023 that he would “solve this war in 24 hours a day” if re-elected.

Critics worry that far-right parties, which are on the rise in France and Germany, will advocate a softer line on Russia.

‘worthy of attention’

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R. Politik consultancy, said Putin sees 2024 as a “window of opportunity” to reverse the course of the war in Russia’s favor, in part because of Western weakness.

“He expects a temporary gap in Western military support, with ammunition production not expected to increase until early 2025,” she wrote on her Telegram channel.

She added: “The US election cycle may lead to a less decisive US geopolitical strategy in supporting Kyiv, while the EU, facing its own internal divisions, is unlikely to make up for this support on its own.”

But one reason for Western optimism may stem from Russia’s own domestic weaknesses.

Its economy was firmly at war, and as the conflict dragged on, the public showed signs of fatigue and suffered astronomical losses. So far, Western sources say that 350,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured.

The Western official said there were things that “really should be concerning to Putin” because government spending on defense and security “is causing some real long-term problems for the Russian economy.”

“Balancing domestic stability takes up a large part of Putin’s energy,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noting the current tone of Russian officials as “overconfident.”

But without strong Western support, “I don’t know what negotiating position the Ukrainians would be in. It would be a terrible position,” she said.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)