More repeat knife offenders are avoiding jail than at any time since two crackdowns were launched nearly a decade ago. independent can be revealed.

Exclusive analysis of Ministry of Justice data shows that of the more than 4,000 adults arrested with a knife or assault weapon in England and Wales for at least a second time in the year to September 2023, almost four in 10 were spared. Yu was immediately jailed.

The figures represent a record number of offenders avoiding jail since a 2015 crackdown that required repeat offenders to be jailed for at least six months.

The survey results are provided by independent The Police Federation of England and Wales has escalated its demands for a royal commission that accused judges and magistrates of having a “knee-jerk reaction” to sentencing due to budgets and a lack of prison space.

Have you also been affected by this? Email alex.ross@independent.co.uk

Knife crime has surged during this period, with the number of crimes recorded by police in England and Wales jumping by 5% to 49,000 by September 2023. During the same period, nearly 45% of murders involved knives or sharp instruments.

The Police Federation said it was “no wonder victims and the wider public are let down”, while former Downing Street crime adviser Rory Geoghan claimed the “weakening” of penalties was making towns less safe.

Hayley Ryall, whose 16-year-old son Mikey Roynon died after being stabbed in the neck at a birthday party in Bath last year, said: “Too many people are carrying knives and doing What message are we sending before harsher sentences are issued?” Get out? People will continue to think they can get away with it and we will lose more lives like my son did. “

The requirement to jail repeat knife offenders is the result of amendments to the Criminal Justice and Courts Act under former Prime Minister David Cameron, known as the “two strikes rule”.

The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act 2022 further strengthened this provision, with judges and magistrates being told that they would only be justified in not imposing an immediate custodial sentence in “exceptional circumstances”.

But the latest figures show that 38% of adult recidivists avoided immediate jail time in the year to September 2023, up from 35% the year before and up from a low of 28% in 2019.

The proportion of people sentenced to probation rose to 23%, the same level as two years ago, while in 1% of cases (48) defendants were released with a release or a fine.

The new figures come after a series of high-profile stabbing incidents across the UK – including the deaths of two boys aged 15 and 16 in Bristol in January – These incidents have heightened concerns about carrying knives.

The latest NHS figures also show that there were 3,775 admissions to hospital in England due to “sharp object” attacks in 2022-23, a 4% increase on 2014-15.

Steve Hartshorn, chairman of the Police Federation, said: “The decision on the sentencing guidelines appears to be a knee-jerk reaction, driven by budgets and the availability of prison premises rather than logic or strategy, which limits what judges can do. Ability to impose appropriate sentences.”

He claimed that judges and magistrates failed to support the work of police officers after identifying and arresting knife wielders, a factor in a recent survey which found more than nine in 10 police officers had low morale.

Mr Hartshorne also called for a royal commission into the criminal justice system and public safety – a type of commission appointed to investigate issues – adding: “It’s no wonder victims and the wider public are disappointed.”

Patrick Green, chief executive of the Ben Kinsella Trust, set up in the name of the 16-year-old student who was stabbed to death in Islington in 2008, said the figures showed the impact of sentencing guidelines There are “inconsistencies” in application.

He added: “Victims deserve justice and a lack of enforcement can result in them feeling the system has failed.

“Furthermore, it undermines the intended deterrent effect on habitual knife owners, putting more young people’s lives at risk. We urgently need to refocus on upholding the law and ensuring tougher penalties for repeat offenders.”

Mr Geoghegan founded the Public Safety Foundation after serving as special adviser on justice and home affairs in Downing Street and as a police inspector at Thames Valley Police.

He said: “Any weakening of the already lenient penalties for those caught carrying knives, machetes and other illegal weapons on our streets will only make our towns and cities less safe.

“It is absolutely unacceptable to carry illegal weapons on the streets and it is not uncommon to be caught doing so multiple times. It is vital that those caught face severe consequences, including jail time.”

Geoghegan added that political parties should work to increase prison capacity to send a “clear message” to offenders.

The latest data showed the prison population at 87,700 on March 22, 1,200 below operating capacity of 88,900. But the government predicts the population will rise to 94,400 by March next year.

To help deal with the crisis, the government recently put forward emergency proposals to allow the early release of prisoners.

A spokesman for the Judicial Office, which represents the judges, said prison overcrowding was not taken into consideration in sentencing. They said sentencing guidelines and case-specific aggravating and mitigating factors could affect sentencing.

Offenders may be sentenced immediately to up to six months in prison at the Magistrates’ Court, or sent to the Crown Court for a potentially longer sentence.

Tom Franklin, chief executive of the Magistrates Association, said the situation was not one-size-fits-all and that repeat knife-wielding offenders could be spared immediate jail time for possessing a blade with reasonable cause.

“For example, some people who plead guilty may have had a reasonable excuse for possessing a knife but that would not meet the requirements of the statutory defence,” he said.

He added that magistrates would also consider probation service recommendations when considering prison sentences, which could indicate an offender’s behavior could be managed in the community.

He said: “While magistrates can and do impose such custodial sentences in appropriate circumstances, it is generally accepted that short custodial sentences are not very effective in promoting recovery and therefore, where appropriate alternatives to immediate imprisonment are available, These alternatives will be adopted.”

The Ministry of Justice said that 33% of all knife offenses in the year to September 2023 resulted in an immediate custodial sentence, with the average sentence being seven-and-a-half months.

A spokesman said: “Our latest figures show criminals carrying knives or offensive weapons are being sent to prison more often and for longer than a decade ago, following decisive action to protect the public.

“We are doing everything we can to steer young people away from crime and, thanks to our tough sentencing reforms, knife-carrying offenders are more likely to face jail than they were 10 years ago.”