Latino voters abandoning Biden could tip election in Trump’s favor

NEW YORK CITY — Navigating the high-rises of Miami, Latino band Los 3 de la Habana rose to fame in 2020 with a campy Spanish-language song that proclaimed “Oops ouch/Oh my God/I’m gonna vote for Donald “trump card. ”

Their performance under the “Keep America Great” banner exemplifies a growing trend among America’s Latino or Hispanic population: Trump is increasingly targeting these traditionally Democratic-leaning demographics. Four years later, the trend appears to be solidifying and could have devastating effects on Joe Biden’s electoral chances.

Democrats have struggled with Hispanic voters as a voting bloc, with Republican turnout in places like Miami-Dade County, Florida, 22% higher than in 2016, and Republican turnout in places like Starr County, South Texas. 55% more than in 2016.

A recent CNBC poll showed that Trump may surpass Biden among Latino voters in the upcoming election, with 46% supporting him compared to 42% supporting the US president. In swing states like Arizona (32.5% Hispanic) or Nevada (30.3% Hispanic), their support could ultimately sway the outcome.

“If you look at margins in states like Arizona, Biden won by a slim margin,” said Alfonso Aguilar, director of Hispanic engagement at the conservative American Principles Project. “This election will be decided by 40,000 votes in three states.”

Luis Figueroa, second vice president of the Republican National Hispanic Congress, said the Republican Party’s growing popularity among the Hispanic population is the result of adverse economic conditions caused by Biden’s policies. “There are a lot of people worried about inflation and high prices,” he said in Spanish.

“Many factors, primarily future prospects, the economy, job security and gas prices, lead people to say ‘President Donald Trump’ Let’s live better’.” “Since 2021, Hispanics have been hurt deeply by the economic conditions in our country.”

Speaking to the US Spanish-language television network Univision about the conservative shift among Latino voters, Trump said: “The Latino vote is so incredible because they are incredible people. They have incredible people. Incredible skills, incredible energy, and very entrepreneurial.”

Dedicated to Mike Madrid, expert on Latino voting behavior and author of the upcoming book latino centuryDemocrats have previously appealed to these voters in part through an identity-based approach to politics.

“Democrats have always approached Latinos through a racial and ethnic first lens, where immigration is front and center,” he said.

In the 2008 election, Barack Obama received 67% of the Hispanic vote, while only 31% chose John McCain. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 71% to 27%, a gap that continued; in 2016, Trump received 28% of the population vote, That’s 38% less than Hillary Clinton.

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But over time, as the Latino population integrated into American society, economic issues became increasingly salient. With more than half of the Hispanic population completing only high school or less, and many working in blue-collar jobs such as agriculture, their voting patterns have slowly begun to resemble white working-class voters, a key demographic for the Republican Party. In 2020, Trump won the support of 41% of Hispanic voters who did not attend college.

“The educational divide that defines American politics is now beginning to take on a Latin flavor,” Mr. Madrid added.

represent 19.1% of the U.S. population in 2022The Latino or Hispanic population constitutes the largest ethnic or racial minority group in the United States, accounting for 12.6% in 2000. This diverse population, made up of Mexicans, Cubans or Puerto Ricans, among others, has traditionally been seen as a reliable vote for the Democratic Party. party. “We are a nation of immigrants,” Mr. Biden said at a 2022 Hispanic Heritage Month reception. “Nowhere is the possibility more evident than in the Hispanic community.”

Explaining the impact of Biden’s economic policies on the Latino population could help Democrats retain these voters in November. “One of the big challenges this administration will face this year is how to communicate the policies the administration has enacted that have produced measurable benefits for Latinos,” said Eduardo Eduardo of the Latino Community Foundation, a California-based nonprofit. Garcia said.

Mr. Garcia highlighted the American Rescue Plan, the 2021 stimulus bill designed to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which helped 24% of Latino minors escape poverty. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, which aims to modernize the country’s infrastructure, improved broadband access, but only 65% ​​of Latinos have it.

According to a recent Financial Times Polls show that nearly half of Americans believe their economic situation has worsened since Biden took office as president, with only 17% saying their economic situation has improved. Additionally, 42% believe Trump is the best person to manage the economy, while only one-third chose Biden.

Immigration appears to be another Achilles heel of the Democratic Party. In a January CBS poll, 63% of respondents said Biden should take a tougher stance on migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, with 75% defining the situation there as as “crisis” or “very serious”.

Aguilar said Democrats’ refusal to adopt stricter border security measures has contributed to declining support among Latinos. “them [Latinos] They come here because they understand that part of the American dream is law and order.A Hispanic person sees what’s happening at the border and they say ‘This is wrong,'” he told I.

But Eva Santos Veloz Dhaka (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) recipients and activists say immigrant protections and economic opportunity should be at the center of Democratic campaigns. “Many immigrants have family here and they have the right to vote,” Ms. Veloz said.

Ms. Veloz said Democrats should offer regional solutions to counter Republican anti-immigration rhetoric to mobilize people to vote. “them [Democrats] There should be more attention on the individual states and a commitment to smaller changes to get the Latino vote out of the most affected states like Texas,” she said.

Most importantly, Ms. Veloz said, Democrats need to spell out the impact that a Republican return to power will have on the Latino population. “If Republicans win, our economy will be affected, all of our different areas will be affected,” she said.