this week, New York Times and Washington post When U.S. officials warned their Kremlin counterparts ahead of an Islamic State terror attack near Moscow, they specifically told them that Crocus City Hall was a potential target, the report said.
The warning did not prevent the March 22 attack that killed some 144 people. In the days since, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and other officials have suggested, without evidence, that Ukraine played a role in the plot. On Wednesday, the head of Russia’s National Security Council once again claimed without evidence that the United States bore responsibility for its ties to Kiev.
To learn more about Russian government messaging, VOA Georgian Editor-in-Chief Iya Mermishvili spoke with noted Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He is the founder of the Russian Anti-War Committee, a former political prisoner and the former boss of the Yukos oil company.
Khodorkovsky spoke via Zoom from London. The interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
Voice of America: Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky, thank you for taking the time to talk to us. What is your assessment of the terrorist attack on Croux City Hall? How do you evaluate the Kremlin’s initial reaction?
Mikhail Khodorkovsky: The Kremlin’s first reaction was obvious confusion. They don’t know what to do. At first, it wasn’t entirely clear what was going on. But it soon became clear.I wouldn’t say it’s completely clear, but it is
clearer. Obviously, Americans warned the Kremlin through official channels and public occasions that ISIS and ISIS organizations were preparing to launch terrorist attacks.
Apparently, on these days – the very days pointed out by the Americans – reconnaissance was taking place.It is very possible that this terrorist attack should have occurred earlier, during a concert of shamans [a Russian singer]. But they got scared and that’s what happened. In addition, some of the perpetrators were exposed – Tajiks who were captured.They were apparently present and killed during this terrorist attack [people].
It is unclear who ordered and organized the terrorist attack, as it was clearly very professionally prepared. From entry to exit, about 13 or 18 minutes passed.Generally speaking, this is not enough time to enter [the complex]shot the guards, entered the hall, drove people into the hall, and organized such a large-scale fire that could not be extinguished.
This leads to the idea that there was a second group that no one saw, because it’s not entirely clear how the first group was able to organize such a massive fire in 18 to 20 years in front of hundreds, if not thousands, of people. It was still minutes before they ran out and half an hour until the emergency department arrived. The roof is too high to catch fire like this. Who started the fire and how it was completely unclear.
Today, I would still be very cautious about the idea that this was Putin’s organization. I don’t like Putin, but the confusion he showed in the first 24 hours after this terrorist attack was traditional for him: he froze after something strong and unpleasant happened. Overall, this does not suggest that this was something he arranged for his own promotional purposes.
To put it mildly, not everything is clear in this case.Of course, this is a terrible, catastrophic failure for Putin’s special service, and it’s simply a shame for Putin personally, because he said [about the American warnings] “It’s all lies, blackmail and provocation.” Not only did he say this everywhere, but he also said it at a Financial Stability Board board meeting three days before the terrorist attacks. In fact, as commander in chief, he issued orders to the intelligence community to relax on the issue of warnings about the Americans. No one will forget this. For him, it was a huge stain on his professional reputation.
Voice of America: In the past few years, there have been terrorist attacks in Russia such as the terrorist attack on the Eastern Theater in the North and the Beslan massacre, but the people did not seem to object to the way they were handled. What impact do you think this attack will have on Russian society?
Khodorkovsky: I don’t think there will be any dramatic change in the mood of Russian society. You’re absolutely right: we’ve been through even more horrific terrorist attacks in Beslan, and I still shudder when I think about that attack. We walked through the horrific terrorist attack in Nord-Ost. Furthermore, in Beslan, it was clear that some terrorists escaped. Special forces have shown a high degree of unpreparedness for the real challenge of terrorism.
They also demonstrated “expertise” in other areas. I would rather focus on a very unpleasant trend that has emerged: that is, public demonstrations of torture. The fact that special units torture people, the fact that people are tortured in prisons, is well known. Sometimes even videos are leaked. But encouraged by the spread of the video, it has never been done live and publicly like this.
Why do this? Well, one reason is obvious. Putin needs to change the center of public discussion away from his absolutely epic failures, as well as his personal failures. That’s why they choose topics that greatly stimulate public awareness – it’s torture, it’s ending the moratorium on the death penalty, and so on.
But it wouldn’t be so bad if that was all. To my profound regret, evil has been “tried down” so to speak. People see these examples of cruelty, which prepares them to accept certain violations of the law. They were shown that it was possible and that it was acceptable. What is certain is that if today this is acceptable in relation to an extremely unsavory suspect, tomorrow it will be used in relation to hundreds or thousands of completely different people.
Unfortunately, this means that Putin is preparing for an increase in repression and, by and large, not only traditional forms of incarceration but also a general tightening of the situation.
Voice of America: There are concerns that Putin will use the terrorist attack as a new mobilization mechanism. How realistic is this?
Khodorkovsky: They might use it to some extent, but it’s a third-order problem. Now he still has a chance to recruit enough people. Instead, he was limited more by his ability to train men and provide them with weapons than by anything else.I don’t think there will be such a large scale
500,000 soldiers were raised. Instead, he will recruit 140, 150, or even 160,000 more people, which is not difficult to do within the framework of spring recruitment. A certain amount will come from prisons and volunteers.Considering the current situation on the front, with the current level of support, or more accurately, “no support”, this is enough to create the conditions for his summer offensive [by the West] for Ukraine.
We deeply regret what is happening now with the supply of weapons, the supply of ammunition, both from the United States – in fact, the United States is currently the only country that can provide the necessary quantities – but also from Europe… All this has led to Ukraine Totally obvious and dramatic nerf.
Ukraine does not have enough air defense systems because supplies have stopped. On the front lines, people died, even being denied the chance to respond. All of this will end in a very sad way if nothing changes in the next few months.
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