Washington —

Top U.S. officials have pressured their allies for years to exercise restraint, but Israel’s alleged attack on Iran has thrust the region and Western-led diplomacy into uncharted territory.

Iran and Israel have long been waging a shadow war, marked by the assassination of a nuclear scientist in Tehran and attacks against Israel by the clerical state’s allies across the Arab world such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, but the United States has prioritized preventing a large-scale war. Task. war.

President Joe Biden’s administration can only limit rather than prevent regional conflict after Iran-backed Palestinian militants Hamas launched its deadliest attack ever on Israel on Oct. 7, shocking Israel and strengthening its resolve.

Melissa Kurma, director of the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program, said the direct attack by Iran and Israel was “a milestone because it completely changes the rules of engagement between the two adversaries.”

“It has also heightened tensions in the region. The specter of all-out war has become very real for many countries in the region,” she said.

Earlier on Friday, Israel appeared to have launched an attack near the Iranian city of Isfahan, after Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel over the weekend with 300 missiles, drones and rockets.

Neither Iran nor Israel’s direct attacks have caused significant casualties or damage, and neither country has publicly confirmed Friday’s attack, leading U.S. officials to privately express hope that Iran will not retaliate and that the cycle will end.

Force Iran to change its calculations

The Iranian drone strike was retaliation for Israel’s apparent destruction of the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1, which killed seven members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, including two generals.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, said Israel has clearly considered the consequences of the Damascus attack, and noted speculation that Israel may want to win over the United States, which has been increasingly criticized Israel has launched relentless attacks on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Watanka said Israel was trying to force Iran, an enemy since the 1979 Islamic revolution that overthrew a pro-Western king, to reconsider the costs and benefits of its “axis of resistance” that has seen militants spread across Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, Syria and other areas have been nurtured by Tehran for two decades.

“It’s a very simple model in the sense that Iran is fighting its adversaries in the region so that they don’t have to fight their adversaries inside Iran,” Watanka said.

“That basic calculation is being tested because of what the Israelis are doing, and I’m sure that’s intentional,” he said.

Both Biden and his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, who was negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loathes, have made diplomatic proposals for military action against Iran.

Biden’s Republican challenger Donald Trump took office in November, tearing up the nuclear deal and imposing sweeping sanctions that hurt Iran’s economy but did not halt Tehran’s regional strategy.

Diplomatic success after failure?

Israel does not appear to be targeting Iranian nuclear facilities – although its message is unmistakable, as Isfahan is the province of Natanz, Iran’s key nuclear facility.

“Israel wants to show Iran what it can do without actually taking action,” said Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group.

U.S. officials fear that a direct strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities would lead the ruling clergy to rush for bombs, quickly start a war, and force Iran’s Arab rivals such as Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons.

The attacks by Iran and Israel have sparked criticism from the left and right that the Biden administration has failed to achieve the key goal of preventing a regional war after Oct. 7.

But the United States has also quietly pressured Israel and Iran to limit strikes, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken trying to send a message to Tehran through his counterparts in China, Turkey, Germany and other countries.

“Diplomatic efforts over the past week have mainly focused on de-escalating the situation, and so far, these efforts appear to have been successful,” Kurma said.