Regional security experts say a large-scale Israeli attack on Iranian territory could accelerate the country’s development of nuclear weapons.
Israel’s government is considering retaliatory measures after Iran carried out unprecedented air strikes over the weekend, and foreign governments urged restraint to limit an escalation that could expand Tehran’s nuclear program.
Dr. Raz Zimut, a security analyst and Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said Iran does not appear to be changing its nuclear posture at this time.
“They are now comfortable with the threshold of becoming a nuclear power,” he said, citing Israeli estimates that it would take Iran six to 24 months to produce a nuclear weapon. A breakthrough could trigger military action by the United States and Israel, as both countries have vowed to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
Seyyed Aziz, a journalist and political analyst in Tehran, said Iran is also confident that its conventional capabilities can deal with the Israeli threat.
“If Israel responds, Iran’s response will be to use more advanced strategic weapons,” he said, pointing to a fatwa issued by Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei targeting nuclear weapons. Iran claims the program is for civilian purposes.
But Dr Zimut said Iran’s calculations could change if its nuclear facilities were attacked.
“If we see some form of Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program, that could have some impact on Iran’s decision to explode,” he said, noting that Iranian sources hinted at the fatwa. can be overridden In some cases.
“If Iran faces a threat that it believes exists, it will certainly take more risks and go there,” he added.
The analyst added that Israel is unlikely to attack nuclear facilities alone because it lacks the capability to cause significant damage to nuclear facilities without U.S. support.
A war game conducted by a Washington think tank Simulating an Israeli attack A study of Iran’s nuclear facilities found that these measures were ineffective and led to “destructive conventional missile attacks on Israel” by the Iran-aligned Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, triggering an all-out war.
But Dr. Abdulrasool Diefsalal, a regional security analyst and weapons of mass destruction researcher at the Middle East Institute, said even strikes against less sensitive targets could lead to changes in nuclear policy.
“Any kind of Israeli strike inside Iran runs that risk,” he said. “If it causes significant damage to Iran’s conventional capabilities, or weakens it in a way that appears irreparable, or puts Iran in a position where it is under constant threat of air strikes, then we are in a very dangerous moment…that could push Developments in Iran.” The country is rethinking its deterrence posture.
“If Israel reacts too strongly and Iran is unable to respond in a conventional way, then we will have a problem.
“It depends not only on Israel’s response, but also on Iran’s perception of its own ability to fight back… If Iran’s overall deterrence declines, we run the risk of the weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program.”
Crisis Group Iran director Ali Vaez agreed. “If Iran’s regional and conventional deterrence proves futile in protecting the Iranian homeland, it is not far-fetched to think that Tehran will start looking for alternatives,” he told reporters I. “Given its near-nuclear weapons capability, Iran may choose to cross the Rubicon and develop an ultimate deterrent.
“Thus, the more successful Israel is in weakening Iran, the less likely it is to turn Iran into a greater threat.”
Dr. Difsala viewed a series of apparent miscalculations by Israeli intelligence services as a serious threat.
“The incompetence of Israeli intelligence is alarming and dangerous,” he said, referring to the recent failure to foresee the deadly Hamas attack on October 7 and the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. There will be retaliation.
Dr Zimut highlighted another cause for concern about the lack of dialogue between Tehran and Tel Aviv, which could help mitigate the risk of escalation.
“One of the problems we see is that, unlike what was the case between the Soviet Union and the United States or India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran don’t have any channels of communication that they can use to de-escalate the situation,” he said.
Dr Zimut added that this communications gap would become “very, very dangerous” if Iran crossed the nuclear threshold.
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