Iran may launch counterattacks against Western assets in the region, including troops, in response to suspected Israeli air strikes on its consulate in Syria.
Experts say Monday’s attack in Damascus that killed two key Iranian generals and five military officers was a “major incident” that would trigger retaliation amid rising tensions since the war in Gaza began. While Israel and Iran have been attacking each other’s targets for months, the attack on the consulate marked a clear escalation.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge on Tuesday, saying: “The Zionist regime will be punished at the hands of our brave men. We will make it accountable for this crime and the Regret for other crimes.”
An official with Iran-backed Hezbollah said Hussein Youssef, a member of the militant group, warned that “the killings will not end unless the enemies are punished and retaliated against.”
As is customary, Israel said it would not comment on the latest attack.
Dr Louise Keitel, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham and Research Associate at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank, tells us I: “This is a big deal. We’ve seen Israel attack other Iranian officials before, but the difference this time is that it’s an official diplomatic residence. This increases the pressure on Iran to respond because this is real for them insult.”
The attack killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who until 2016 had led the elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. It also killed his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Hajiriyashmi.
Just hours earlier, a drone attack hit the southern Israeli port city of Eilat, which has been repeatedly targeted by drones and missiles over the past few months. Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel has also stepped up a long campaign of airstrikes against Iranian or Iranian-backed targets in Syria.
Dr. Keitel believed that the Israelis could risk attacking a diplomatic building because of the importance of its personnel. “They claim they have taken out the really important leaders of the Quds Force; they are responsible for running the so-called ‘proxy groups’ in the Middle East,” she said. “All these groups are targeting Israel.”
A senior Israeli government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the attackers “were behind numerous attacks on Israeli and U.S. assets and were planning more attacks.” The official said the embassy was “not a target.”
Iran provides weapons, training and financial support to a wide network of Shiite militias across the region known as the Islamic Resistance Movement in Iraq, which since October has claimed military control of Western troops stationed in Iraq and Syria. The base has launched more than 150 attacks.It also supports groups including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ho Chi Minh City
This is in Yemen.
Some believe Israel may want to be seen as a useful ally to the West by targeting individuals who provide leadership to proxy groups such as the Houthis, who are attacking ships in the Red Sea.
Dr Keitel said any Iranian retaliation for the attack would likely come from one of these groups. “Iran has traditionally disliked direct engagement, especially with Western powers,” she said. “Specifically, if they consider Israeli goals, they will support Hezbollah more.”
Professor Ali Ansari, Professor of Iranian History and Founding Director of the Institute of Iran Studies at the University of St. Andrews, said I Iran “will most likely, if at all, use proxies (and therefore can claim deniability if necessary) to launch counterattacks against suitable Western assets in the region (not necessarily Israel).”
He said it was “more likely to be Shiite militias in the region than Hezbollah” who would respond.
Dr. Keitel said Iran could pursue U.S. troops in the Middle East. “them [Iran] She said they would hold the United States accountable because of its support for Israel. “I expect there has been an alert for U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, where we are seeing Iranian-backed groups active. I expect their security measures have been stepped up in the last 24 hours.”
How soon we might expect a response and in what form remains to be discussed. “It depends on how big it is,” Dr. Keitel said. “But I don’t foresee them wanting to keep it around for too long.”
“This strike will be adjusted to be limited. Iran is in a difficult position right now and it has to be seen to take some action, but it doesn’t want to do anything that will make its own life more difficult,” she added.
Professor Ansari pointed out that Iran faces huge economic challenges, with high inflation and US sanctions. The country has also faced political turmoil since a crackdown on nationwide demonstrations sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022.
“Of course they could launch a missile attack on one of the many allied bases in the area as they have done before,” he said.
Baraa Shiban, a researcher and political analyst on Yemen and Gulf issues, said this is “a challenging situation for Iran as it has tried its best to avoid direct confrontation with Israel”.
“It puts them in a difficult situation,” he said. “If they don’t respond, they will appear weak, and if they do, they risk falling into direct confrontation with Israel.”
Shiban said the consulate airstrikes would make it more difficult for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to carry out operations in Syria. “Obviously, it’s not easy for them to operate in Syria,” he said. “Israel is sending the message that they are targeting them inside Syria.”
Like others, he expects retaliation to come from one of the Iranian-backed proxy groups, possibly based in Iraq or the Houthis, who he believes will likely target U.S. targets to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel.
Syrian civil defense teams were still clearing rubble from the bombed site on Tuesday, with ambulances parked nearby.
Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, who was not injured in the attack, said the razed building was his residence.
The attack was one of the worst blows to the Revolutionary Guards since the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani during a 2020 U.S. drone strike in Baghdad.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations called the attack a “flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter, international law and the basic principle of the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises” and said it “posed a major threat to regional peace and security.”
It urged the U.N. Security Council to condemn the attack and said Tehran reserved the right to “react decisively.”
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