A former Iraqi foreign minister has warned that despite the Islamic State’s military defeat, a new terror group could emerge from the group’s remnants.
Ten years since ISIS came to power in Iraq and Syria, former minister Hoshyar Zebari warned before being ousted in 2017 and 2018 that the terror group’s “root causes” remained is resolved and there is a “viable environment” to come back.
The group rose to international prominence last month when its affiliate Isis-K claimed responsibility for a massacre at a Moscow concert hall that left more than 130 people dead.
“Islamic State has been destroyed as a caliphate, but as an ideology they are still active,” Mr Zebari told I. “This is due to the isolation and sense of injustice within the Sunni community, which has been pushed aside. They have no hope for the future, especially the young, who have been indoctrinated by ISIS’s ideology of ‘pure Islam’, as well as purification What the world needs. They are also very effective on social media.”
“The root causes related to tolerance and education remain unresolved. There is still some contested territory. This is a viable environment for the rise of Isis 2.0 or Isis B. [Resurgence] is a possibility. “
At its peak, the Islamic State controlled about one-third of Syria and 40% of Iraq. But Zabari said the Islamic State could change tactics or even transform into a new group.
“I don’t think this will be the same type of Islamic State. I think they realize now that with advanced technology, no matter how committed their fighters are, they can’t have a caliphate. They thought they could spread [their ideology], but then the world responded. I don’t think they will make the same mistake. But they may try to control a small part of the territory,” he said.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani Calls for U.S.-led troops to withdraw from Iraqargued that their presence was destabilizing, but Mr Zabari warned that Islamic State would “try to exploit” the US withdrawal.
Asked whether the international community needed to do more to counter the Islamic State threat, Mr Zabari said: “This is our fight… The international coalition is one of the important factors in preventing the rise of Islamic State 2.0, but there must be political and Social reform is here too.”
it appears after I Travel to the former Islamic State heartland of northern Iraq and get the inside story of their bloody occupation from those who lived through it, the effects of which are still felt today.
New terrorist groups ‘will inevitably rise’
Milo Comerford, director of policy and research at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, said the continued failure to address the root causes of terrorism means the resurgence of the Islamic State, or its rebranding under a new group, is “inevitable”.
“We’ve seen multiple ups and downs with these groups, essentially a false dawn that the root causes have been addressed, but they never are,” he said.
“We had this in Iraq in 2006 and 2007, where after the defeat of al Qaeda (the predecessor of ISIS), people thought the problem had essentially gone away and the intervention was successful. In fact, it was , we have seen this time and time again, where the basic conditions remain the same and there is military success but little indication of the underlying factors or ideologies that hold the group together [has been addressed].
“So whether it’s called ISIS or something else, as long as it follows the pattern of this history, it’s inevitable that it will rise and take on new forms and be able to attract new generations.”
The fate of many Islamic State militants remains in doubt.Across Iraq, more than 19,000 ISIS fighters detained Sixty thousand people were killed, Many more are missing.
Thousands of people also live in internally displaced persons camps, such as the Hasan Sham U2 camp near Erbil, where I Visited and spoke to former affiliates who are unable to return to their communities for fear they will be killed for the crimes of ISIS.
“Honestly, I think the answer is that people don’t really know what happened to all the fighters,” Mr. Comerford said. “It appears that this is not going away but is being reformed and reformulated.”
Although the Islamic State group’s numbers have declined since its defeat in Iraq and Syria, the United States has expressed concern that the group still poses a serious threat.
Gen. Michael Kurira, head of U.S. Central Command, told Congress last year that Islamic State, the Afghanistan-based affiliate of the group responsible for the Moscow attacks, was rapidly increasing its ability to conduct “external operations” in Europe and Asia.
Islamic State may adopt new financing model
But Dr Antonio Giustozzi of defense think tank RUSSI said the group no longer had the same level of international funding, which could hinder its return to the international stage.
“One factor that has been overlooked many years ago is geopolitical factors. In the past, there have been huge financial inflows to support the Islamic State. This is an important factor because it is not easy to build an organization of this scale – with this kind of The cost of the model is very high. This one is gone.”
“There will still be some people in the Gulf who believe in ISIS-sponsored causes, but basically the flow of money is significantly reduced, and it’s not clear where the big money is coming from. Of course, the geopolitics may change, but for now, the crisis in Gaza That doesn’t seem to be changing.”
Dr. Antonio suggested that the group may move to a funding model in which “millions of people contribute little, rather than a few contributing millions,” and predicted that the Islamic State would select targets to gain support from specific groups.
“They try to identify the causes and grievances that exist within the Muslim community and take action, such as retaliation. In the case of Moscow, the targets are Central Asian immigrants who often feel mistreated, underpaid, and held in menial jobs. There will be There’s a certain frustration that anyone interested in revenge has for ISIS to say, “Come with us.” It’s a new model, but then they don’t raise the same funds.
“Overall, I expect there will be some recovery, but not the peaks of the past,” he added.
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