New Delhi:

The region finds itself on the brink of a potentially devastating conflict after Iran launched unprecedented drone and missile attacks on Israel. With sirens blaring and explosions ringing over Jerusalem, the long-running secret war between Iran and Israel has raised fears of further escalation and instability.

To shed light on the intricate dynamics, NDTV spoke to Simon Mabon, professor of international politics at Lancaster University and author of several books on the Middle East, to understand the current state and future of the region.

Regional upgrade

On April 1, an airstrike hit the Israeli consulate in Damascus, killing seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. Iran had previously threatened to retaliate against Israel.

Professor Mabon highlighted the impact of Israel’s targeted attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The aftermath of the attack severely destabilized the region, creating an unstable environment filled with uncertainty.

“Israeli’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus had a huge impact on regional politics, making the environment in the region even more unstable. Israel’s direct attack resulted in the killing of senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and triggered strong condemnation from including the Ayatollah Senior figures in Iran including Ra’ali Khamenei,” Professor Mabon told New Delhi TV.

“This has raised serious concerns among many in Israel, the United States and elsewhere about Iranian retaliation against Israel. But this could take many different forms. Iran feels that it is under pressure to respond because of its longstanding support for Israel. the Palestinian cause and its longstanding opposition to the state of Israel,” he added.

The Iranian military claimed that its drone and missile attacks on Israel had achieved all expected goals.

“As the de facto leader of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, Iran finds itself in something of a dilemma in this regard. Since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, it has been very careful not to escalate its relations with Israel, but At the same time, it is in some ways forced to take some type of retaliation,” Professor Mabon said.

Israel’s possible reaction

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today that Israel has been preparing for a direct attack from Iran for years and will “harm” anyone who harms them.

“Israel has said that if a direct attack was launched from Iranian soil, then it would respond in kind. That’s interesting wording because it talks about a direct attack from Iran,” Professor Mabon said.

U.S. President Joe Biden, Israel’s strongest ally, has pledged “ironclad” support for Israel. Historically, Israel’s steadfast stance on attacks on its territory has shown that any direct attack from Iranian soil will be met with swift retaliation. Despite the preference for de-escalation, the specter of conflict remains, especially as Israel considers its next steps.

“No one wants the situation to escalate now, but the decisions of Israel’s war cabinet are absolutely crucial to what happens next. Whether Netanyahu decides he has the capabilities to prevent a massive attack with huge economic losses estimated in the billions of dollars, Enough to say to Israel’s competitors, “Look, we’re going to stop you, no matter what the cost.”

In a region rife with instability, the slightest misstep can lead to a catastrophic escalation with far-reaching consequences

“What will Israel do next? Will the Iranian attack trigger another response? The Iranians have been very keen to say this has nothing to do with the United States,” he said.

Pressure on Netanyahu

Thousands of Israelis gathered in Jerusalem earlier this year to demand more action to free prisoners detained in Gaza and oust Netanyahu.

On October 7, Hamas militants attacked Israel, triggering a conflict in which approximately 250 hostages were taken. Israel estimates that 130 people are still detained in Gaza, 33 of whom are suspected to be dead.

Since October 7, Netanyahu’s leadership and his coalition have doubled down on their hardline stance on dialogue with the Palestinian leadership. Netanyahu will not engage with the Palestinian leadership to discuss the future of a Palestinian state unless the hostages are released. The current dialogue is about releasing the hostages to achieve a ceasefire,” Professor Mabon said.

“The other thing worth noting here is that Netanyahu’s political future is at stake. If he is ousted, that is increasingly likely given the widespread protests he faces against his rule and leadership. So he increasingly wants to double down on his stance because he sees it as a way to stay in power,” he added.

prospects for regional peace

Against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, prospects for peace talks between Israel and Hamas have become increasingly bleak.

Palestinian militant group Hamas has rejected the latest offer from international mediators for a truce in the Gaza war, Israel’s spy agency Massed said today.

Egypt, Qatar and the United States have previously acted as intermediaries in the negotiations, but a workable deal has proven elusive. Mediators are aiming for a ceasefire before the start of Ramadan, but progress has stalled.

“Public calls for a ceasefire have increased, but unless the United States publicly calls for a ceasefire and condemns the IDF’s actions in Gaza, Israelis are able to ignore, circumvent or avoid what they perceive as ‘noise’,” Professor Mabon said.

post-conflict reconstruction

Gaza has been under continuous bombardment by Israeli forces since the attacks on October 7, and the region’s post-conflict reconstruction is an arduous task fraught with multifaceted challenges and complexities.

“Recovery and reconstruction in conflict is an extremely challenging task. Post-conflict reconstruction is expensive and extremely challenging. People are coping with devastation, loss of livelihoods, families, and mental and physical harm, and bringing all of this to Put it all together and you have an extremely stressful environment,” Professor Mabon said.

“Then there is the additional economic burden – who is going to pay for the reconstruction because there is no money in Gaza or Palestine right now. The Palestinian economy has been devastated by what has happened, and the Gaza economy in particular has been devastated. So Gaza faces a lot of problems in terms of reconstruction. Many challenges,” he added.

An estimated 33,686 people have been killed in the besieged Palestinian enclave since Israel launched its attack on Gaza.