Israel made clear to the United States on Sunday that it does not seek a major escalation of the conflict with Iran
The barrage of missiles and drones fired at Israel from Iran’s arid plains is a direct clash between Middle Eastern powers that the world has long feared would mark the onset of a full-scale regional war.
But behind the unprecedented attack was a dance of diplomatic signals that allowed both sides to claim success, raising the risk of a wider conflict without making it certain.
The Israeli military said that after Iran sent signals for several days that artillery fire was coming, 99% of the artillery fire was shot down and no Israelis were killed. Tehran said it had made its point clear in an attempt to stall progress toward a wider conflagration. Israel’s supporters in the United States and Europe also urged on Sunday to avoid calls for further escalation.
Although violence has spread to other countries in the Middle East since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, the Jewish state and its enemies have managed to hold back from the brink.
What changed over the weekend is that the latest U.S.-led diplomatic effort – which so far has focused on de-escalating the crisis in Gaza – aims to ensure that any Israeli response is measured, according to people familiar with the matter.
U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while the attack was deadly and destructive, Washington urged Israel not to retaliate. The worry, though, is that logic may not prevail, according to a person familiar with the matter. Indeed, one wild card is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure from government hardliners, although successfully defeating an Iranian attack could strengthen his hand.
Sanan Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said Iran’s attacks were “carefully designed” to limit damage. Still, she said, “we are closer than ever to a broader regional war.”
Iran’s recent attacks have escalated sharply, with the hardline government launching its first direct attack after decades of relying on proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah to wage a shadow war with its main regional rivals.
It has demonstrated with a massive attack that it is ready to challenge Israel’s military superiority head-on, something no other country has dared to do in decades. The United States moved ships and aircraft into position and vowed to help protect Israel. Britain and Jordan are also involved.
Oil markets stabilized on Monday after Israel repelled an attack, but the prospect of $100 a barrel of oil now looms again, with Bloomberg Economics predicting a direct war between Israel and Iran would plunge the world economy into recession.
However, in order to avoid escalating the conflict with Israel’s superior military strength, Iran issued warnings publicly and privately days before the operation. Chinese officials described their intention to retaliate against countries in the region, a move that allowed the message to reach the United States indirectly, according to a person briefed on the briefing. U.S. officials said no direct warning was issued to the United States.
Although losses were limited, Iranian officials called the operation a successful retaliation for the April 1 attack on the diplomatic compound in Damascus that killed several Iranian military commanders. Iran blamed Israel for the attack, but the Israeli government has not yet taken responsibility.
On Sunday, Israel also celebrated defeating an attack and being able to once again demonstrate the country’s military prowess in shooting down missiles and protecting its citizens after facing criticism following a Hamas attack six months ago.
For Netanyahu, it also comes after months of escalating public criticism of Israel’s deadly military campaign in Gaza, including from President Joe Biden. Congressional leaders are planning a long-delayed vote on additional aid this week.
U.S. officials, who had warned in the days before the attack that conditions were extremely dangerous, were relieved that defenses were working and the damage was not worse. Publicly and privately, they have called on Israel to resist its desire to retaliate against Iran, or at least to keep its response limited enough to prevent further upping the ante.
Israel made clear to the United States on Sunday that it does not seek a major escalation of the conflict with Iran, according to U.S. officials. One official said they were seeking to protect and defend themselves.
“Remember, these are two parties with a long history,” said Michael Singer, a former senior White House official and now managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Neither side wants to see this explode into an all-out war. Does that mean a miscalculation won’t happen? Absolutely not.”
Israel’s call for another round of retaliation, this time aimed directly at Iran, heightened concerns. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gweil called for a “devastating attack”. Although Netanyahu did not endorse the call, Israel’s war is far from over.
Many Israelis have not called for a quick show of strength, in part because Iran’s attacks have been so unsuccessful. At the same time, it distracts global attention from the brutal war in Gaza.
The conflict has killed about 33,000 Palestinians, according to Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union. More than 100 hostages have not yet been released and thousands of the militant group’s fighters remain entrenched in the Gaza city of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of refugees are sheltering.
Hamas has rejected the latest ceasefire proposal from mediators following the Iranian attack, according to Israel’s external intelligence agency Mossad.
Israeli forces are planning an attack on Rafah, while violence has also erupted along Israel’s northern border, with tens of thousands of civilians evacuated from both sides amid fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
For now, the weekend attacks appear to indicate that deterrence remains to prevent Iran from expanding the war into an all-out war with Israel.
Dana Stroul says Iran is trying to chart a “new course.” Strauer served as the Pentagon’s deputy assistant secretary of state for Middle East affairs until December.
“If Israel targets any of its officials abroad, even if those officials are involved in terrorist activities, Iran will launch an attack like the one we saw last night,” she said. Israeli leaders “will need to respond,” she said, but The approach will “prevent the start of a new escalation cycle that could lead to a full-scale regional war.”
Last week, Tehran told Arab states in the Persian Gulf that its response would be cautious and avoid its territory, despite publicly threatening massive retaliation. They say the Houthis, Iran’s proxies in Yemen, have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and have a limited role.
A diplomat in the region said Tehran appeared to be discussing its intention to retaliate against neighboring countries to show restraint in a bid to stoke public shock and awe after the killing of the commander of its embassy compound in Syria. territory. Gulf states are desperate to avoid a wider war, underscoring the importance of caution.
Israel has accompanied Iran’s public threats with its own warnings, backed up by public pledges from its allies.
On Friday, the United States sent a senior military commander to Israel to help coordinate a response, even as officials said an attack was imminent. American and British aircraft and warships helped shoot down some of the drones.
One Western diplomat said that while the attack could be devastating, its purpose appeared more to demonstrate Israel’s resolve than to overwhelm Israel’s defences.
However, officials in the region said they expected some kind of response from Israel, given the unprecedented nature of a direct Iranian attack. Just how serious the situation is will indicate whether progress towards the brink of wider conflict has actually been put on hold.
Mark Cancian, a defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the lack of damage and casualties meant Israel could limit their attacks. “Maybe they will attack a military base that launches missiles, maybe a production plant, maybe an Iranian naval asset,” he said. “Everyone is watching what the Israelis will do.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
