Can Rishi Sunak escape his troubles as chancellor?

How much trouble is Rishi Sunak limping into Easter?

This week, our newspapers have devoted extensive coverage to the plot to overthrow the Prime Minister because mutterings of the rebels News about sending a letter of no confidence to Bench Sir Graham Brady.

Mr Sunak He hit back at the end-of-term conference, telling MPs to “get our act together” as the plotters took a back seat for the time being.

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But this week’s question is electoral dysfunction The question is whether the Prime Minister has reached the point where he is “embattled” or worse. Ruth Davidson’s ironclad rule of leadership: “Being in trouble is being in trouble, and once you’re in trouble, you’re dead.”

In this week’s election defeat taping, we find ourselves returning to that letter as we move into this week’s discussion focused on politics: just how much trouble is Sunak in – and is he in the death zone?

“I think he was in trouble, and I’m not entirely sure he was in trouble yet,” Ruth said. “I think there was a breaking point, a danger, when he encountered 1922.” [his address to backbench MPs].

“And almost always, when you actually confront the people who are encouraging you to leave, they’re like a paper tiger.”

But for the prime minister, the danger zone is never far away.

He had just sent MPs home for a week – they will go back to work for another day before the Easter holidays – when there was two pieces of very bad news: Home Office figures show that More than 500 migrants arrive Small boat traffic hit a new high in 2024 on Wednesday, with current crossings up 10% compared to the same period in 2023.

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The second piece of news to unsettle his already jittery party is a YouGov poll which showed that conservative Just 4 percentage points ahead of the Reform Party, whose support hit a new high of 15%, compared with 19% for the Conservatives. There’s only one poll, but it will send shivers down the spines of already desperate members of Congress.

You have to wonder whether taking them out of Westminster to canvass for votes when they return on April 15 will only make Mr Sunak’s situation worse.

Ruth says the next flashpoint will definitely be the local elections on May 2: “That will be a big indicator of how the general election will go. And it will be the last moment to really think about a change of leadership before the general election.”

“I don’t think that’s going to happen, but after this we’ll probably see more Conservative MPs saying they won’t stand for election when the election comes. I think he’s safe for the next two or three years In a few weeks, I think there’s going to be a tough reckoning in early May.”

Conspiracies and dire polls have destabilized the government, and there are still rumors of elections before the autumn, which shows how much fanaticism still exists beneath the surface.

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A Tory source told me this week that Tory campaign headquarters were ensuring they were ready to go in June in case there was a move against the Prime Minister after the local elections.

Meanwhile, Jess Philips throws her own “curve ball” in our podcast chat regarding rumors of local elections being postponed until June. This is pure kite flying, especially since they would have to pass legislation to push for an election (doing so shortly before Election Day would seem shocking).

But perhaps talk of a summer election is a warning to the rebels, keeping people on their toes. It’s a threat, but we don’t know who created it.

That’s how confusing it is here.

All these symptoms point to a deeper unease in a prime minister whose reputation is being tarnished by a damaging minority on his bench who sincerely believe a change of leader might help alleviate what they believe they will face Election forgotten. Perhaps after May we will know whether Mr Sunak is in better shape or worse.