As Donald Trump inches closer to becoming the Republican nominee in the 2024 US presidential election, he is targeting a large group of voters who could help him in what is expected to be a tight race – black people voter.
Political analysts say Republicans have historically been poor at targeting or cultivating the Black vote, while Democrats rely heavily on it.
However, recent polls show a slight shift, with more black voters expressing support for Trump, although that may not be enough to turn the tide.
Amy Tatum said: “The number of black people who have negative views of Trump has changed very little, but the number is still high, which may say more about the growing dissatisfaction with the current Biden administration than the Trump administration. Trump’s changing attitude,” a Bournemouth University academic at the American Politics Group told I.
“Re-election campaigns are always tough for incumbents, and support for the incumbent is expected to decline [US President Joe] Biden.
“At the same time, there is a growing perception that Democrats will only appeal to black voters when they need to win elections. However, Biden and [US Vice President Kamala] Over the past four years, Harris has not been seen as paying attention to the black community. “
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, “after several years of modest growth,” the number of black voters in the United States is expected to reach 34.4 million by November. pew research center Washington think tank.
They can play an important role in determining the outcome of key elections — in the swing state of Georgia, Pew Research Center notes, Black Americans make up one-third of eligible voters.
In the 2020 U.S. election, black voters were overwhelmingly loyal to the Democratic Party. 92% of black voters According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center, 8% supported Biden while 8% voted for Trump.
Polls have shown that support for Trump among black voters has been rising in recent months. A survey by The New York Times and Siena College The survey released Saturday showed that 23% of black respondents said they would vote for the former president in this year’s election, compared with 4% last year. The same poll in October 2020.
A New York Times/Siena College November poll found 22% of black voters in six battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – said they would support them in this year’s election Trump, while 71% said they support Trump-Biden. That’s a significant increase given that he won just 8% of black voters nationwide in 2020 and just 6% in 2016.
Peter Finn, senior lecturer in politics at Kingston University, cautions against focusing on any single data point, but acknowledges that polls can indicate trends and illustrate a sitting president’s support.
He said I: “All segments of the American electorate are going to be subject to the same pressures and narratives—justified or not—that make Biden unpopular overall, so if American voters overall view Biden more negatively, then It wouldn’t be surprising if everything didn’t reflect that.”
Meanwhile, a BBC investigation revealed that Trump supporters are creating fake artificial intelligence-generated images of the former president and sharing them with black people to encourage African Americans to vote for him in the election. Republican Party.
One photo shows Trump smiling with his arms around a group of black women, while another shows him posing with black men on a front porch.
The BBC reported that there was no evidence that the images it found were related to Trump’s campaign and were produced by American voters themselves.
One creator of the fake image said: “I’m not saying it’s accurate.
“If someone votes a certain way because they saw a photo on a Facebook page, that’s that person’s problem, not the post itself.”
Trump has been courting black voters as he defeated rival Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, attending a Black Conservative Alliance gala last month with about 500 guests.
His comments at the South Carolina gala sparked controversy when he said a photo of him after his arrest in Georgia last year was more popular with “black people” than any other group.
“Black conservatives know better than most that some of the greatest evils in our nation’s history stemmed from corrupt systems that sought to target and subjugate others and deny them their freedoms and rights,” he said.
“I think that’s why black people are so supportive of me right now, because they see what happened to me, happened to them.”
Ms Haley called the comments “disgusting”, while Cedric Richmond, co-chairman of Biden’s re-election campaign, called them “pure racism”.
But some black conservatives defended Trump. “Black Americans are waking up to the reality that Democrats have taken advantage of them, and the media and political parties are scared,” said Diante Johnson, president of the Black Conservative Alliance.
“Our community supports the policies of President Donald J. Trump and knows full well that life was better under his administration four years ago.”
Dr. Tatum said Trump’s comments were intended to “build a sense of rapport with black voters” but were unlikely to have an impact on election night.
“These comments will not help him win any votes from the black community in 2024 and will largely be viewed as what they are – a clear attempt to attract a much-needed base of voters,” she said.
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