The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “extremely active,” Colorado State University forecasters said Thursday.

Of the 23 storms forecast, five out of a total of 11 hurricanes may become severe hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 178 km/h.

This estimate is higher than the average annual hurricane season, which typically produces 14 named storms of varying intensity.

According to Colorado State University, this increase is due to warmer ocean temperatures and weather patterns that make storms less likely to break out in the summer and fall.

Another factor is the end of the El Niño weather pattern, which changes wind speeds and directions at different heights in the Atlantic basin. The upcoming La Niña pattern enables the cyclone to develop high clouds and a strong low pressure center.

“We expect a well-above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and Caribbean,” Colorado State University said.

The forecast report also notes that global heat has surged over the past year to a degree that exceeds the gradual warming that scientists have observed in recent decades. This could increase the risk of extreme weather.

Philip Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast and a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, said, “At the peak of the season, for Atlantic temperatures to not be significantly warmer than normal, something pretty crazy would need to happen. “things,” with the peak usually occurring in August and September. Washington post. “This is certainly a strong signal that this is going to be a busy season.”

While forecasts cannot pinpoint where the storm may make landfall, coastal communities and energy companies are most likely to be affected.

Fifteen percent of U.S. crude oil production, 5% of dry natural gas production, and nearly 50% of refining capacity are produced in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is estimated that there is more than a one-third chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the East Coast.

Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 20.

Some of the information in this report comes from Reuters.