The State of the Union address is traditionally an occasion for U.S. presidents to highlight domestic achievements, and President Joe Biden is expected to discuss his approach to the economy, reproductive rights, gun control and immigration on Thursday night.
But as the U.S. deals with wars in the Middle East and Europe, foreign policy is likely to figure more prominently in Biden’s fourth and possibly final such speech to a joint session of Congress.
White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said in an interview with Voice of America on Wednesday that the president intends to highlight his achievements in “restoring America’s leadership on the world stage.”
He added that U.S. leadership gives it the ability to influence the actions of world leaders and adversaries “in a manner more consistent with our national security interests.”
That influence has failed to overcome apparent differences between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on issues such as how to deliver more humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza, the Palestinian Authority’s postwar role and the U.S. vision for a future Palestinian state. Disagreement.
On Ukraine, U.S. leadership has been overshadowed by House Republicans blocking a $95 billion Senate-approved foreign aid package, including $61 billion to support Kyiv in its fight against Russia. The bill also includes $14 billion in security aid to Israel, $9 billion in humanitarian aid and $5 billion to support partners in the Indo-Pacific region as Washington competes with Beijing for regional influence.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the strategic competition between the United States and China will be the focus of the foreign policy portion of Biden’s speech. Analysts say the president will take a different approach on the two issues as he considers voter sentiment ahead of his re-election bid in November.
Push for Ukraine aid
Biden will use his speech to renew his call for passage of a foreign aid bill and argue that embracing isolationism amid rising Russian expansionism is not in U.S. interests.
“The president will continue to make clear that House Republicans need to move forward. The speaker needs to have the national security supplement on the floor,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a press briefing on Wednesday. “We know it will have overwhelming support. “
While the Biden administration has won international support for its efforts, including massive military and economic aid to Ukraine, major sanctions on Russia, and a significant strengthening of NATO’s military posture in Eastern Europe, it has failed to provide the American people with a strong case for this policy said John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and current senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
“This in turn makes it easier for naïve voices, especially in some corners of the Republican Party, to block the aid that Ukraine needs to avoid failure,” Herbst told VOA.
Thomas Schwartz, a presidential historian at Vanderbilt University, predicted that Biden will go “all in” on Ukraine, especially in light of the recent death of Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison. Schwartz told VOA that the Russian dissident’s death reinforced the U.S. view that supporting Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russian President Vladimir Putin is a “truly moral cause.”
“It would also put him in stark contrast to Trump, who has certainly expressed admiration for Putin in the past but has been less supportive on Ukraine,” Schwartz added.
Polls show American support for military aid to Kiev is divided along partisan lines, with voters in the president’s own party largely sympathetic to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s war effort.
according to to a public opinion poll The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research said that 67% of Democrats believe that preventing Russia from gaining more territory in Ukraine and helping Ukraine regain territory currently occupied by Russia is the top priority of the U.S. government. Only 37% of Republicans agreed.
Biden will use his speech to drum up support among Americans war-fatigued. Overall, 37% of respondents (55% of Republicans and 17% of Democrats) said the U.S. government is spending too much on aid to Ukraine.
Proceed with caution in Gaza Strip
The president is likely to declare support for the Israelis immediately following the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 and stress the importance of ensuring Israel can defend itself against threats from U.S.-designated terrorist groups.
But he needs to tread carefully on the issue, given the divisions between pro-Israel Democrats and independents who support his stance on the conflict, progressive Democrats and Arab and Muslim Americans who are angry about it.
Anger over the deaths of more than 30,000 people in Gaza and Biden’s refusal to impose conditions on U.S. military aid to Israel led a significant number of Democratic primary voters in Michigan and Minnesota to express their protest by marking their ballots as “uncommitted” and demanded immediate action. and a permanent ceasefire.
Negotiators have yet to be able to halt the fighting in Gaza ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which begins this weekend. On Tuesday, Biden said the fate of the interim ceasefire was in “Hamas’ hands” after Israel agreed to a “rational proposal” on the table.
Hamas has since responded that a hostage exchange would be impossible without a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The group accused Israel of delaying negotiations.
Israeli politicians on Thursday will be closely watching who Biden blames for the impasse and how important he is to Israel’s efforts to protect and deliver aid to Palestinian civilians, said Jonathan Ringhold, chair of the political studies department at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.
Ringhold told VOA that as Biden is likely to reiterate his call for a two-state solution, Israelis will be eager to know whether he calls on Israel to “present a clear vision that includes a Palestinian state.” “I doubt he will, but if he does it would be a bad thing for Netanyahu but not a bad thing for the war.”
Biden is likely to focus on criticizing far-right elements within the Israeli government and voicing disapproval of violence committed by what he calls “extremist Israeli settlers” in the West Bank, as he has done many times in the past.
Kirby said the president will also call for increased humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. As Netanyahu’s government refuses to open more land crossings for aid convoys and as Israeli forces fire on desperate Palestinians besieging a convoy of food trucks, killing more than 100 people, the United States has resorted to using military aircraft to airdrop supplies — —The way aid is delivered is expensive, ineffective and dangerous.
A Gallup poll Data released this week showed that 58% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Israel, down from 68% last year and the lowest favorable opinion of the country in more than two decades.
Iuliia Iarmolenko contributed to this report.
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