Analysts: Vietnam President’s resignation shows intra-party struggle

Analysts say Vietnam’s President Vo Van Hoang resigned this month after one year of his five-year term, signaling infighting within the Communist Party and shaking up the country’s reputation for political stability, a major driver of foreign investment.

On March 20, the Party Central Committee held a special meeting and agreed to let Thuong give up the position of president and all official duties. Thuong’s resignation comes amid an anti-corruption campaign led by party leader General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, 79.

The General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam issued a written statement that day, saying that an investigation by the Central Supervisory Committee showed that Zhang had violated party regulations.

Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the Yusof Issa Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, told VOA on March 23 that the government’s statement on Thuong’s dismissal was vague, but many people suspected that his resignation was related to his 2011 It is related to his tenure as Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee of Quang Ngai Province until 2014.

On March 8, the province’s chairman Dang Van Minh and former chairman Cao Khoa were arrested in connection with an ongoing investigation into Phuc Son Real Estate Group. According to a government statement, police found forgery, perjury and selective bookkeeping at the real estate company, which caused a $26 million loss to the state budget.

“Thuong was the party secretary at the time, so these are all connected, and people claimed that Thuong might be forced to step down because of this,” Jiang said.

succession struggle

Jiang added that Zhang’s resignation was an “extremely rare and surprising event,” especially since he was the second president to resign in less than two years.

Thuong’s predecessor, Nguyen Xu Phuc, was forced to relinquish the position in January 2023. Phuc’s downfall is believed to be due to his alleged involvement in rising prices for COVID-19 test kits.

“One man was brought down during the anti-corruption campaign and another man was appointed to take over the position… and a year later he was forced to step down for the same reason,” Jiang Zemin said of the two presidents.

“That doesn’t sound like a good thing for the party organization and the party’s image as a protector of stability,” he said.

Florian Feyerabend, Vietnam representative of the German political foundation Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung, echoed similar sentiments, telling VOA that Phuc and Truong succeeded each other in such a short time ” Inevitably it raises questions about the predictability, reliability and inner workings of the system”.

“While the system itself remains stable, the internal balance of power appears to be in a precarious state ahead of the next party congress,” he said.

Experts say the timing of Thuong’s resignation is significant because it comes ahead of planned changes to the country’s top leadership at the 14th National Congress in 2026.

Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South Wales, said Thuong’s resignation would speed up the selection process of candidates for the new central committee and “expose divisions within the leadership.”

Thuong, 54, is the youngest member of the Politburo and is considered a potential candidate for the leadership post of general secretary.

“[Thuong] Clearly pursuing a larger goal. … There are reasons to believe he could be an attractive option for a party that is increasingly out of touch with younger generations,” said Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington. (Zachary Abuza) told VOA on March 20.

“It’s been a pretty spectacular fall,” Abuza said.

While it was unclear what the political motivation was for Thuong’s ouster, Abuza said Public Security Minister Surin appeared to be vying for the most powerful position in the country. Are we talking about the chairman or the general secretary?

“We still don’t know who wants to take away [Thuong] Abuza said. “All eyes are on the Minister of Public Security because he is so ruthless in taking down his rivals. He is clearly seeking the top job for himself.”

Thayer told VOA that the two possible candidates to succeed Thuong are Carrie Lam and Central Organization Committee chairwoman Teo Thi Mui. He said the case’s surfacing 12 years later had “led to speculation” that Lam was ruling out possible rivals in an attempt to stay in power after the 2026 party congress.

Duy Hoang, executive director of Viet Tan, an unsanctioned political party that promotes democracy in Vietnam, also said he believed Thuong’s downfall was the result of a power struggle.

“This could be a proxy war over who will be the leader of the Communist Party for the foreseeable future,” he told VOA on March 20.

economic challenges

Abuza said political unrest poses a threat to the country’s economy. In addition to high-profile arrests of two presidents and the private sector, officials including a deputy prime minister, two ministers and more than a dozen provincial leaders have been removed from office since 2021.

“For a country that prides itself on political stability, which is one of its main selling points to foreign investors, it does look unstable,” Abuza said.

Feyerabend also said that political stability is one of the important factors for Vietnam to attract foreign direct investment. However, he said recent political events would not immediately affect the overall stability of Vietnam’s political system or its attractiveness for foreign direct investment.

Viet Tan’s Hoang cited concerns about the livelihoods of the country’s more than 100 million citizens.

“I think this will affect people’s lives because it will cause economic chaos,” Huang said. Corruption is rife in Vietnam, but many officials “fear they will be dragged into a blazing furnace” because of the anti-corruption campaign, he added. . General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong described his anti-corruption campaign as a “burning furnace.”

“Licensing decisions are being delayed and people can’t make decisions,” Huang said. “Things became so frozen because of this power struggle.”

Still, Jiang of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies said there is room for optimism. He said foreign direct investment is the country’s main economic engine and remains a top priority for the Communist Party.

“We will get through the current uncertainty and we will continue to perform well no matter who is in charge,” he said. “Vietnam still wants to maintain… high and sustainable economic growth, political stability, and good relations between China and the United States.” A good balance between the two countries, no matter which faction or person is in power.”

VOA’s Vietnamese Service’s Lin Dan reported from Washington.