Bangkok-

Public support for Thailand’s former prime minister has been evident since Thaksin Shinawatra was paroled from a Bangkok police hospital in late February.

The 74-year-old received a hero’s welcome on Tuesday when he visited the Pheu Thai Party headquarters. The party he founded now leads the Thai government.

But Thaksin’s return to Thailand after 16 years of self-imposed exile has only heightened questions about how much political power he currently wields.

Pheu Thai MPs insisted Thaksin’s appearance at the party headquarters after a visit to his hometown of Chiang Mai, where he was also besieged by supporters, had no political significance.

However, experts say his reappearance puts him in a position of political influence.

“Thaksin has been ensuring that he does not fade into obscurity with his high-profile visit to Chiang Mai, which attracted extensive coverage in the Thai media,” senior journalist and political analyst Pravit Rojanaphruk ) told VOA.

“Given Thaksin’s continued popularity… and his daughter [Paetongtarn Shinawatra] The leader of the ruling Pheu Thai party seems to [Prime Minister] Sreeta [Thavisin] Must prove your worth quickly by delivering the following results [are] Voters can see it, he said.

“Otherwise, the risk of him being replaced by Paetongtarn will be high,” Pravit added. “As for Thaksin: Even if he is not the current chairman of the government, he clearly plays the role of kingmaker and has greater influence than the prime minister himself.”

Thaksin Shinawatra is a popular but controversial figure in Thailand who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006 before being ousted in a military coup. He went into exile in 2008 to face charges of corruption and tax evasion.

The changing political landscape

While the billionaire businessman’s pro-Thailand movement promotes an ideology of populism, reform and opposition to military rule, those values ​​have made Thaksin unpopular with Thailand’s upper classes and royalists.

Nearly two decades later, the Southeast Asian country’s political landscape has changed. Thaksin’s return in August coincided with Thailand’s return to power, with Srettha becoming the country’s 30th prime minister.

Thaksin still faced eight years in prison upon his return but received a royal pardon, reducing his sentence to one year, sparking speculation among some observers that a secret deal would allow him to be politically rehabilitated as Pheu Thai returns to power.

Thaksin was permanently transferred to Bangkok Police General Hospital just hours into his sentence – officials cited unspecified health problems – sparking more rumors about a political arrangement.

Thaksin’s activities have been closely watched by the media since he was discharged from hospital last month. He has already hosted a visit from Cambodia’s former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who passed power to his son Hun Mane last year.

Napon Jatusripitak, a political scientist at the Yusof Issa Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, a think tank in Singapore, believes Thaksin’s goal is to expand his base in Thailand’s political landscape.

“I think Thaksin is sending an unmistakable signal that the Shinawatra political machine is not only back up and running but is now more capable than ever of influencing the direction of this government, particularly when it comes to dealing with Cambodia,” ” he told VOA.

“This is most likely an attempt to re-solidify his political base among the government and voters after Pheu Thai performed poorly in the election and betrayed its supporters’ mandate,” Napong added.

After last year’s election, Pheu Thai formed a coalition that included rival military parties, drawing criticism from supporters.

Thaksin’s influence could also curb the rise of the reformist Kadima Party, which won the most votes in the general election but was blocked by the Senate from leading the government over its pledge to amend a law that would make it a crime to criticize the monarch.

“If he cannot be an effective buffer for conservatives against Kadima, he will no longer be needed as an ally,” Nabon said.

Despite Thaksin’s popularity and importance to Pheu Thai, not everyone is happy with the Thai tycoon. Last month, dozens of demonstrators gathered at a makeshift meeting point outside Thailand’s Government House to protest against his parole.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, writes that Thaksin’s influence is not what it once was.

“Mr. Thaksin’s political influence is weaker than before,” Thitinan wrote in an op-ed in the Bangkok Post.

Titinan called the Kadima Party’s victory in the election an “unprecedented defeat” for the Pheu Thai Party, which has dominated elections in the past two decades. He said that the rise of the Kadima Party proved Thaksin’s age and Decline in influence.

He said the Shinawatra family now no longer has a single top-down structure and is limited to working with others to exert influence and power.

But Thaksin’s re-emergence in politics is likely to put pressure on Prime Minister Sretha. Thitinan said he was “influenced by Thaksin” and faced “performance pressure” in guiding Thailand’s economy, which unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023.