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Labor is in “serious trouble” walespolling expert sir john curtis The party is warned after the loss A crushing defeat in the by-elections held in their strongholds.
plaid cymru snatched traditionally Labor seats Of carphilly away from head keir starmerDespite the party surge of Improvement Voting will take place overnight in Britain on Friday.
The result, in which Labor finished third, marked the first time the party has lost the vote in the former mining town in more than a century.
Labor controls the Welsh Parliament Since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 carphilly Has been one of its strongholds.
But opposition parties are hoping to form the next government welsh government to pass run a fierce campaign In the South Wales constituency, many are viewing this week’s by-election as a Bellwether for Senedd elections Next May.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4 Today At the programme, Sir John said: “Labour’s share of the vote was just 11 per cent. It fell by 35 points. It is Labor’s biggest ever fall in a by-election in Wales. Labor is in serious trouble in Wales.”
He added: “This shows that plaid is now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister.
,Improvement It would be disappointing to come second with 36 per cent but I don’t think we should shy away from the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble has burst.
sir john said Improvement The UK result is “fairly consistent” with Mr Farage’s party’s general polling.
“It’s just that if you’re facing a strong alternative, it’s not going to be strong enough to win the election, which in this case was plaid, whereas that was certainly not the case in the county council elections earlier this year.”
Lindsay Whittle, long-time councilor and group leader in Pennyhole ward carphilly council, won the seat With 47.38 per cent of the vote – a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour.
was in second place Improvement At the same time, Britain’s LLR Powell is at 35.9 percent. welsh laborRichard Tunnicliffe came third with only 11 percent.
The result will also be seen as a disappointment for Reform UK, which was front-polling and hoping to win its first seat at the ballot box, with Mr Farage promising to “give everything” into the campaign.
While the party’s vote share had increased significantly after winning only 495 votes four years ago, it is believed that tactical voting to keep Reform out of office led to the party’s success in the constituency on Friday.
However, the final result put Reform well ahead of Labor and raised hopes that the party could oust Sir Keir’s government at the next election.
This is the first time in election history that a Parliament there is a by-election More than 50 percent voting took place,
The result will boost plaid’s efforts to enter government in Wales next year, and is a blow to Labour, which has held the seat since the Senedd was first established.
plaid cymru Leader Rún ap Iorwerth said the result showed the people of Caerphilly had chosen “hope rather than division, and progress rather than the tired status quo”.
“This result shows that plaid is no longer just an option. We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party capable of stopping billionaire-backed reform and offering a better future that works for everyone,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Whittle said: “Tonight’s result shows what is possible when people come together to support practical solutions and protect what matters most.
“We have defeated billionaire-backed reform and with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has led the way – now Wales must follow.”
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, almost 19 per cent more than the 2021 result in the constituency and representing a lead of almost 27 per cent over Labour.
Mr Powell received 12,113 votes, while Labour’s Mr Tunnicliffe trailed on 3,713, down from 13,289 in 2021, when there was a lower turnout.
And as Labor remains reeling from the shock of the Caerphilly by-election result, a Techni UK poll has emerged which shows the Green Party’s lead is hurting Labour.
Techni’s first poll for a month – the first since the Greens elected Jack Polanski as leader – shows the party up three points to 12 per cent, while Labor has fallen below 20 per cent in Techni’s polling for the first time, to 19 per cent.
The Reforms are on 29 per cent, the Tories on 18 per cent and the Lib Dems on 16 per cent. Meanwhile, less than one in five (19 percent) express any level of confidence in the government.