Why the Maharashtra verdict is hard to predict: A battleground for NDTV

The fight will not be simple in Maharashtra, which has the most seats after Uttar Pradesh and is sure to play a key role in who controls Delhi. In all elections except 1977 and 1989, the party that won more seats in Maharashtra went on to form the government at the centre. With Maharashtra having 48 seats, it is difficult to say which way the state will go, an NDTV expert panel concluded tonight.

Panellists said several factors are expected to affect elections in the state, including swings in caste, minority votes and farmers’ agitation. But at this point, it also depends on what the BJP and the Opposition choose to focus on.

“If the campaign’s The focus is on the BJP, which may change something. And what will the MVA change? “Focus on – Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar – that will also be a deciding factor”.

Senior journalist Rohit Chandavarkar said Maharashtra is already a developed country in terms of industry.

“So, jobs are not a big issue here. It may be a problem in UP but not here. Someone may have to leave their village but they will find a job 100 km away. Price hike is not a problem here either Big problem. … That’s why caste is an important factor here and the opposition is also taking advantage of the farmers’ agitation,” he said.

There is also the Narendra Modi factor that is expected to impact elections in the state and other parts of the country.

Political strategist and commentator Amitabh Tiwari believes this may be the only thing that can separate the UPA and NDA. “In 2019, one-third of voters voted for the Modi factor. The difference between India and the NDA this year may be that factor,” he said.

“After 2019, there has been a major change in the BJP’s strategy. The Prime Minister and the party have focused on Modi’s assurances. This time, the votes for the Modi factor are likely to increase,” Mr Shastri added.

“Rahul Gandhi’s image is improving, but Prime Minister Modi is way ahead in terms of leadership,” said Dr. Manisha Priyam, an academic and social scientist.

“Voting is an emotional decision rather than a rational one. However, no election can be called a done deal for three reasons: India has a lot of late deciders and 25% of votes depend on the candidates name, 69 per cent of the votes were floated.” “Voters are voters, they are kingmakers. That is why in Maharashtra, the situation will be unpredictable,” Mr Tiwari said.

Maharashtra’s Maha Vikas Aghadi faces opposition from the Bharatiya Janata Party, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh Combine forces.

The alliance has been trying to woo Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, who is known to have considerable support among Dalits . But indecision in some key areas has unsettled Mr Ambedkar, who wants the MVA to make a decision.

The rough template for the MVA seat distribution is that the Congress gets close to 18 of the 48 seats in the state, the Shiv Sena Party’s Uddhav Thackeray faction gets 18-20 seats, and the Nationalist Congress Party Sharad ·The Pawar faction won 8-10 seats. But the bone of contention is the fight for nine seats, including Kolhapur, Sangli, Hingoli, Jalna, Ramtek and several in Mumbai, where decisions are yet to be decided.