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IIt is 731 years older than the Welsh constituency carphilly It has seen sieges by rebels attempting to seize power from established rulers.
In 1294, Madog ap Llywelyn attacked the great 13th-century castle that stands in the middle carphilly In an attempt to end the previously unquestioned authority of Edward I.
Where Maddog failed, Nigel Farage‘S Improvement Now there is hope of success. However, a siege by rebels in 2025 seems to mark a dramatic collapse Labor already had an unassailable hold on Wales with plaid Cymru It is also expected to become a serious challenge to the existing party.
carphilly It has been a Labor constituency since 1918, when it was won by Methodist local preacher Alfred Onions. The party has held the seat in every election since then, even when much of the Red Wall fell in 2019.
The seat was supported by a Social Democrat Party (SDP) MP for a brief period in the 1980s, when its Labor representative Ednifred Hudson Davies defected. But at the very next election in 1983 he lost the seat to future Labor Welsh Secretary Ron Davies.
The fortress of Caerphilly represents Labour’s impenetrable hold not only on the town but wales Swayam, which has been running for a continuous period since devolution in 1999.
But now, after the death of welsh labor Senedd member Hefyn David, it seems likely this seat will go to the 21st century rebels of Reform or even plaid Cymru.
The expected outcome is unimaginable to the First Minister, Baroness Alunred Morgan, and would shatter the confidence of the Welsh Labor leadership, as well as be a blow to Sir. keir starmer and his inner circle in Downing Street.
This week’s by-election is a rehearsal for a much bigger election in May 2026, when the entire Senedd is up for election under a new proportional voting system.
Wales is set to attract more attention than it has in its history in the UK-wide election, particularly because the battle for the top spot is being fought not by the party in power in Wales (Labour) but by two groups of nationalists – Reform UK and Welsh separatist plaid Cymru.
The Beaufort survey today put Reform ahead by seven points with 30 per cent, while Labor came second with 23 per cent and plaid with 22 per cent.
But the Survey poll in Wales looked very bad for Labour, with Reform on 42 per cent, plaid on 38 per cent and Labor in third place on 12 per cent.
Labor could finish third and their only serious hope of retaining any power in the land they have ruled unchallenged for more than a quarter of a century is to become plaid’s junior partner in a coalition that keeps reform at bay.
The brutal reality is that if Wales gets around to reform there is a good chance that discontent among Labor MPs at Westminster will become too great and a real effort will be made to oust Sir Keir.
Although this has been happening for some time. In the 2016 EU referendum, a majority of people in Wales supported Brexit. It was a sign of things to come.
The Farage-led Brexit Party won two of the four seats in Wales in the 2019 European Parliament elections.
Now that the reforms are in vogue at the polls, they are eating into the Labor Party’s votes in its traditional strongholds.
The Welsh Labor leadership was so concerned that earlier this year they dispatched the entire Welsh Government to campaign in a council by-election to prevent Reform winning its first seat in the principality. they failed.
But why is Labour’s grip on power in Wales weakening?
There are a number of reasons for this, many of which center on Starmer’s extreme unpopularity, his attempt to cut welfare and pensioner winter fuel payments, and the sense of crisis in his government.
But the Welsh Labor government is not blameless. Fury over 20mph speed limits, restrictions on road building, tourism taxes, dire NHS outcomes and the worst school standards in the UK have not endeared him to Welsh voters. Locally, the closure of libraries by Labour-run councils has not helped.
A local Labor insider said, “When you promise change people expect new money to be spent and are disappointed when it doesn’t happen.”
But the biggest threat to Labor on Thursday and next May is apathy. Voters seem to have stopped caring which means the more motivated smaller group has much more influence.
Labor was gaining votes in previous years, but now people are excited by Mr Farage and his promises on migration controls and the left on steel nationalisation.
Even the conviction of former Wales Reform leader Nathan Gill on charges of taking bribes from Russia has not disrupted the party’s dominance.
If Lloyd Powell wins he will be the first person elected to reform the Senedd, where he will join former Tory Laura Anne Jones, who defected earlier this year. He will surely have many more allies come May next year and Caerphilly could be the first brick to go into another crumbling Labor fortress.