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A The congressional race in Tennessee has turned out to be surprisingly competitive, and tomorrow’s election could be a big indicator of where President Donald Trump stands with the country — and what battles his party may face in 2026.
Tennessee’s 7th District is a district the President won by 22 points in 2024, but just a year later, a Democrat is making a serious effort to wrest control of the seat from the Republicans. This would not only be an embarrassing defeat for the President, but would also move the US House of Representatives closer to a Democratic majority.
Over the weekend, Trump Matt Van Epps given extra boostRepublicans are hoping to keep the district in party hands. He also spoke at a tele-rally organized by Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday.
“To the great people of Tennessee’s 7th District, who gave me record-setting victories in each of the three elections, I’m asking you to get out and vote for Matt Van Epps. He will be a great Congressman and, unlike his opponent, he loves Christianity and country music – she hates both of them! This is a very important election. The whole world is watching. Make America Great Again!”
The endorsement would be perfectly normal in the highly competitive race between Van Eps and Democrat Aftin Behn. But the 7th District, which includes parts of Nashville and a large rural population and overwhelmingly supported Trump in the presidential election, was never considered competitive.
Trump’s support is a sign that momentum has increased Led Democrats to landslide victories in New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia and California The past month shows no signs of slowing down. And there are signs of just how much Trump has been scrutinized in terms of helping the GOP bench — case in point, on Monday, he literally phoned in an appearance in Franklin, Tennessee, to drum up support for Van Epps.
“She said two things more than anything else that bothered me. No. 1: She hates Christianity. No. 2: She hates country music,” Trump told the crowd. “How do you choose someone like that? I just want to give Matt Van Eps my full support – and he’s had it from the beginning.”
Democrats are also bringing out the big guns. Behn will hold a rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Democrats from Jamie Raskin to Stacey Abrams have sent money from their political action committees Behn’s way. Former Vice President Al Gore, who was once a senator from Tennessee, will also join Behn at the rally.
At present, Republicans have only 219 votes in the US House. This number will drop to 218 when Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns from Congress next month. If Behn wins this week, it could drop by one more. Democrats will almost inevitably add two seats to their 213-seat caucus after special elections are held next year to fill vacancies in Texas and New Jersey.
A 218–216 split would inevitably leave the House of Representatives even more disrupted than it was for Johnson.
No matter the outcome of this race, the fact that Republicans are having to fight so hard in a district that was in double digits just 13 months ago is bad news for them ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Take the typical ballot measure, which measures whether voters would prefer to vote for the typical Democrat or Republican for Congress in an election.
Last month, a survey by Marist College, NPR and PBS found that Democrats had a 14-point lead in genericWhich will almost certainly give them a good majority in the House of Representatives.
This may be on the liberal side. but one economistThe /YouGov poll found that Democrats have a five-point lead. Only 38 percent of voters supported the president, an eight-point decline from February when a majority of Americans supported him.
Another reason for Republicans to be worried? The same survey showed that 51 percent of men dislike Trump. In February, 53 percent of men approved of him. His disapproval among Hispanics dropped from 50 percent to 62 percent. And his approval among young people aged 18 to 29 dropped from 42 percent to 29 percent.
No matter how many times Republicans say it, midterms are and always have been a referendum on the president in power.
The upcoming 2026 midterms aren’t just the usual six-year midterms where a president’s party winds down; Because Trump has been on the national stage for a decade, next year’s midterms could be like the ten-year itch, where voters are finally tired of Trump.
All of this suggests about 11 months to go before the 2026 midterms. This does not guarantee that Democrats will regain the majority. But they could take a step closer to taking control with a win in Tennessee, which no one thought possible ten months ago.