The UK could be a “good symbolic location” for future terror attacks, but Turkey, France and the Netherlands could be targeted by groups claiming responsibility for the Moscow attack, a terrorism expert has warned.
The so-called Islamic State (IS) terror group claimed responsibility for the attack and posted apparent footage of the incident on its Telegram channel on Saturday.
A branch of the Islamic State (Isis-K) is believed to have carried out the attack on Friday, when gunmen stormed the Krokos Town Hall concert hall in the Moscow suburbs and opened fire on innocent concertgoers. The building was then set on fire.
At least 137 people died and 182 were injured.
Dr Antonio Giustozzi, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a defense and security think tank, tells us I: “The UK would be a good symbolic location” but said he “doesn’t think it’s a priority because of the difficulty of getting into the UK and the difficulty of buying weapons in the UK.”
He said the group will continue to work because they are desperate.
“It’s like roulette, but the reality is counter-terrorism has gotten better, so it’s actually much harder for them to infiltrate again,” he added.
However, the group is understood to be behind “a large number of Russian, Iranian and Turkish plots” that were either foiled or passed off without receiving much media attention.
“They kept trying, and finally this one worked,” Dr. Giustozzi said. “It resonated widely with the media. It was the perfect attack for them.
“The message has been sent to the people they want to recruit and the people who will contribute to their coffers.
“They may just want to continue to achieve broad goals.”
In addition to Russia, which may be a target due to its involvement in the Syrian civil war, the war in Afghanistan and the war in Chechnya, other countries that need to be on high alert include Turkey, France and the Netherlands.
He said Turkey would be a priority because it has been a major center for Islamic State and the country has been “fighting” the group.
“Turkey has been detaining people and seizing assets over the past few years,” he said.
Giustozzi said France and the Netherlands would also be prime targets due to xenophobia issues and tensions between the far-right and Muslim communities.
He added: “If there is already a problem then the organization will try to solve it.
“France and the Netherlands are ideally suited to do this because of the tensions there between the Muslim community and the far right.”
Vladimir Putin called the attack a “bloody, barbaric act of terror” and said Russian authorities captured the four suspects as they tried to escape to Ukraine through a “window” prepared for them.
The four gunmen, who were seriously injured, went on trial in Russia, charged with terrorism and remanded in custody for two months.
In response to the attack, the French government raised its terror alert to the highest level on Sunday.
“The group is also trying to take some actions on our own soil,” French President Emmanuel Macron said during a visit to French Guiana.
The UK’s current threat level remains at “severe”, in the middle of five possible levels, meaning an attack is likely.
U.S. officials said on Friday that the United States had intelligence confirming the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility.
The UK has repeatedly warned and discussed with partners the rising ISIS-K threat in recent months, an official said Bloomberg.
The Netherlands raised its threat level to “significant” in December, warning of the “risk posed by radicalized individuals” inspired by terrorist groups.
The Islamic State in Khorasan (Isis-K), named after an old term for the region that includes parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, emerged in eastern Afghanistan in late 2014.
It was formed by disaffected members of the Pakistani Taliban and quickly gained a reputation for extreme brutality.
One of the most active regional branches of the Islamic State militant group, its membership has declined since its peak around 2018 as both the Taliban and U.S. forces inflicted heavy losses, but the U.S. still views the group as a continuing threat. .
Gen. Michael Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, told Congress last March that the Islamic State group was rapidly developing the ability to conduct “external operations” in Europe and Asia.
He predicted it would be able to attack U.S. and Western interests outside Afghanistan “in just six months and with little warning,” although he said an attack inside the U.S. was less likely.
The United States says its ability to develop intelligence against Afghan extremist groups such as Isis-K has declined since it withdrew its troops from Afghanistan in 2021.
The military said it could see “the broad outlines” of an impending attack but lacked the specific details it had previously known.
Isis-K has a history of launching attacks, including targeting mosques in Afghanistan and abroad.
Earlier this year, communications intercepted by the United States confirmed that the group carried out two bombings in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman, killing nearly 100 people.
In September 2022, Islamic State militants claimed responsibility for a fatal suicide bombing at the Russian Embassy in Kabul.
The group also launched an attack on Kabul International Airport in 2021, killing 13 U.S. troops and dozens of civilians during the U.S. evacuation from Kabul.
In May 2020, an attack occurred on a maternity ward in Kabul, killing 24 people, including women and infants.
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