This weather phenomenon occurs on average every two to seven years
Geneva:
The United Nations said on Tuesday that the El Niño weather phenomenon that peaked in December was one of the five strongest on record and predicted it would lead to above-normal temperatures between now and May. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that although El Niño is now gradually weakening, its effects will continue to be felt in the coming months as it increases the heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases.
As a result, “above normal temperatures are expected over almost all land areas between March and May,” the World Meteorological Organization said in its quarterly update.
El Niño, a large-scale warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically has the greatest impact on global climate one year after it occurs (in this case, 2024).
It is a naturally occurring weather pattern that is often associated with rising global temperatures, droughts in some parts of the world, and heavy rains in others.
This weather phenomenon occurs on average every two to seven years, with episodes typically lasting nine to twelve months.
Climatic conditions fluctuate between El Niño and the relatively cool La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
– Sea temperatures ‘worrying’ –
“The probability of El Niño persisting between March and May is about 60%, while the probability of neutral conditions between April and June is 80%,” the World Meteorological Organization said.
The World Meteorological Organization says La Niña is possible later this year, but the likelihood is currently uncertain.
World Meteorological Organization chief Celeste Solo said El Niño was exacerbating record temperatures in recent months.
But this needs to be seen in the context of human activity changing the climate.
The main reason, Saulo said, is the concentration of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
“New monthly temperature records have been set every month since June 2023, with 2023 being the hottest year on record to date,” she said.
“El Niño is driving these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are undoubtedly the culprit.
“Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño. But over the past 10 months, sea surface temperatures have continued to be unusually high in other parts of the world,” Saulo added.
“Sea surface temperatures in January 2024 are by far the warmest January on record. This is concerning and cannot be explained by El Niño alone.”
– Record popularity –
The current El Niño occurs in June 2023 and is strongest between November and January.
Its peak was about 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 1991 to 2020 average sea surface temperature in the eastern and central tropical Pacific.
This makes it one of the five strongest El Niño events ever recorded.
El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia.
It could also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia, parts of South Asia, Central America and northern South America.
The World Meteorological Organization says the last El Niño occurred in 2015-2016.
From 2020 to early 2023, the world suffered from an unusually long-lasting La Niña phenomenon, which lasted for three years.
This is the first so-called triple La Niña phenomenon in the 21st century and the third since 1950.
But its cooling effect didn’t prevent the nine warmest years on record, all starting in 2015.
The World Meteorological Organization urges deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
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