Russian troops have arrived in the eastern Ukrainian city of Chasiv Yar, marking a new breakthrough after a series of advances, sources on both sides and independent conflict observers said.
“The situation east of Chasiv Yar is difficult because the Russians have entered the outhouse,” Ukrainian military blogger and mapmaker Deep State wrote late Thursday. “Street fighting may begin in the near future.”
Rybar, a Russian military blog run by former defense ministry official Mikhail Zvinchuk, claimed that the invading forces were located in cities in the Donbass region, which is partially occupied by Russia.
“The Russian army is launching an offensive in the direction of Chasiv Yar. According to preliminary information, the airborne troops have successfully reached the suburbs.” The blogger posted on Friday.
Independent open source investigators geolocated footage of the fighting in the city about 10 kilometers west of Bahmut.
The Institute for War Studies, a U.S. military think tank, released a message on Friday morning: “On April 4, Russian troops conducted a roughly intensified company-sized mechanized attack on Chasiv Yar and advanced to the eastern suburbs of the settlement.”
The city’s pre-war population was approximately 12,500. The vast majority have fled due to heavy bombing in recent months.
Ukraine’s military said the situation in Chasiv Yar was “very difficult” but denied that Russian troops had arrived in the city.
“The situation there is very difficult and the fighting continues, but they [Russian troops] Not there,” spokesman Andriy Zadubinnyi said.
If confirmed, the Russian advance would mark the latest in a series of advances in eastern Ukraine this year, including the capture of the city of Avdiivka and several smaller villages in the west, such as Berdych and Stepove.
Ukrainian military sources complained that shortages of manpower and ammunition ceded the initiative to Russia, which is believed to have a huge advantage in key artillery shells. The Russian military also makes extensive use of guided “glide bombs” to attack defensive positions.
Ukraine is rushing to mass defenses on the front lines, but critics say it is too late to avoid losses.
Mykola Bereskov, a military analyst at the Institute for National Strategic Studies think tank in Kiev and a government adviser, said Russia would continue to make gains unless Ukraine’s allies provided more support.
“The situation on the map is the result of ammunition supply issues,” he told reporters. I.
“Until Ukraine’s severe deficit is properly addressed, there will be reports that Russia is taking steps to [forward]”.
“I don’t know how much warning is necessary,” he added, suggesting that Avdievka’s defeat in February should spur Ukrainian supporters to take action.
Dr Marina Miron, of the Department of Defense Studies at King’s College London, said Russia was likely to repeat its strategy in Avdiivka to capture Chasiv Yar.
“I don’t expect a frontal attack because the Russians have reported that there are mines there, so they have to be careful moving forward,” she said. “I think they’re going to try to surround it.”
The analyst said Russian forces were advancing on multiple fronts, seeking to improve their positions and identify weaknesses before launching a larger offensive.
“The Ukrainian army is trying to resist, but resistance is becoming increasingly difficult,” Dr Miron said.
“The Russian offensive has not started yet. They are exploring whether the front line will collapse.”
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