After Donald Trump announced his plans to initiate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine following his phone calls with leaders of the respective countries, US Vice President JD Vance met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday and said Washington is targeting a “durable and lasting peace” in Ukraine.
NDTV spoke to the defence editor of The Economist, Shashank Joshi, one of the closest observers of the ongoing war, to understand how the peace talks are likely to progress as well as their larger geopolitical ramifications.
To a question on where Russia stands on the deal, Mr Joshi replied, “So far, the good news for the Russians is that they have had a series of unilateral concessions upfront from the Americans – No NATO membership in Ukraine, no US support for European troops in Ukraine and no NATO Article 5 support for those troops.”
Article 5 of US-led NATO provides that if an ally is the victim of an armed attack, every other member of the alliance will consider this act of violence an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the ally attacked.
Mr Joshi said Trump saying we should have Russia back in the G7 has made Kremlin “delighted”. However, Mr Joshi said at the Munich Security Conference, “JD Vance will deliver a message that says to the Russians as well if you don’t play nice, we can also up the pressure on you.”
To a question on what lies for Ukraine in the US-brokered deal, he said, They recognise they’re not going to get Crimea back. For them, what is more, important than getting Donetsk, Luhansk and Donbas back is the security guarantee. He said for Ukraine, territory is not the core of the discussion, even though it is profoundly important to them but how to ensure Russia never invades them again will be central to the peace deal.
What Is In For Ukraine?
The defence expert said it would leave Zelensky casting around some other options. The Americans seem to be ruling out NATO membership, “although, with Trump, you never say never,” he said, adding that he wouldn’t rule out the option of European troops in Ukraine as the French are pushing for it.
Despite scepticism from some countries, the option of European troops in Ukraine is on the table, Mr Joshi said.
“But I think we’re probably heading towards the third option, which is we are not going to give you Article 5 NATO-type security guarantees that say we will come to your aid and intervene, but we will arm you very heavily with billions of dollars worth of weapons so you can defend yourself against Russia,” he added.